Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - New Pace - Reg Speed Sort

lsosa54 · 02-04-2012, 01:36 PM

Interesting comments Dave. My thought process is typically digital - 0's and 1's.

In SoCal, for ex., TUP horses very rarely win, even though their speed sort could be very competitive in the race. Another would be if Mike Mitchell had the horse for 8 races in the PP's and now it was handled by Declan Jackson - the speed sort would look very good but the chances of winning today minimal. I could probably think of more situations that would increase the risk.

I have to think about the "confidence index" and "sri" concepts. Maybe they can be worked in to come up with some sort of a risk adjusted speed sort or something like that.

02-04-2012, 01:36 PM	#6
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Interesting comments Dave. My thought process is typically digital - 0's and 1's. In SoCal, for ex., TUP horses very rarely win, even though their speed sort could be very competitive in the race. Another would be if Mike Mitchell had the horse for 8 races in the PP's and now it was handled by Declan Jackson - the speed sort would look very good but the chances of winning today minimal. I could probably think of more situations that would increase the risk. I have to think about the "confidence index" and "sri" concepts. Maybe they can be worked in to come up with some sort of a risk adjusted speed sort or something like that.