Quote:
Originally Posted by gl45
BJ,
Tampa from 12-28-2011 to yesterday races.
NP contenders at 4-1 or better win only in 243 races.
If $2 bet was made for each NP horse at 4-1 or better, we would have made 613 bets for a total of $1,260.00 and win 54 races (4%) $1,037.50 for a loss of $228.50 with an average of $19.21 per race.
Winners
E1 = 12 ......$172.00 avg....$14.33
E2 = 12 ......$195.50 avg....$16.29
L1 = 11 ......$159.80 avg....$14.53
L2 = 13 ......$319.20 avg....$24.55
Tie= 6 .....$191.00 avg....$31.83
Ex. year to date +$2.40  |
Hi Pino,
Thanks very much for posting this TAM summary. I make the ROI from this to be .823 - pretty typical of what NP does in this odds range (remember Mike's provisional summary of a group of NP 4-1 races was a loss of 10% - basically it loses the take. This isn't bad, but obviously it's not in the black.
(BTW, I think the hit-rate of 54/613 is closer to 9% than 4%, unless I missed something). As Bill Lyster's survey demonstrated, NP's hit-rate begins to evaporate pretty quickly as the odds rise. Again, more evidence of how tough it is to find profitable NP plays, and how grateful we should be to you for putting in the work to find some.
Cheers,
B Jennet