Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

alydar_ David · 02-07-2012, 06:30 PM

According to Dick Mitchell 15% of favorites are legitimate and 15% are false. The rest are vulnerable. You don't want to bet against a legitimate favorite. Either find some way to use him (i.e., horizontal bets or exotics) or pass the race.

Dick also postulated that 10% of all race outcomes are unexplainable. So, don't go beating yourself after the fact trying to figure out why that hopeless nag beat you in a photo.

I first started handicapping using The Sheets. One of the first things Len Ragozin said was to see if you can find a horse to beat the favorite. If you can't then pass the race. Len Friedman said you should generally find about three good win bets on a nine race card. That means you're passing 2/3 of all races (betting one horse to win).

I know, I know, it hurts to pass after you've put all that time and energy into a race. But you don't have to pass. You just have to pass making a win bet. If that 3/5 shot is legitimate there's no reason to not put him on top of an exotic wager. But you don't have to bet him to win.

There's another old hossy adage, "Ain't a man alive who paid his mortgage at 3 to 5."

02-07-2012, 06:30 PM	#7
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	According to Dick Mitchell 15% of favorites are legitimate and 15% are false. The rest are vulnerable. You don't want to bet against a legitimate favorite. Either find some way to use him (i.e., horizontal bets or exotics) or pass the race. Dick also postulated that 10% of all race outcomes are unexplainable. So, don't go beating yourself after the fact trying to figure out why that hopeless nag beat you in a photo. I first started handicapping using The Sheets. One of the first things Len Ragozin said was to see if you can find a horse to beat the favorite. If you can't then pass the race. Len Friedman said you should generally find about three good win bets on a nine race card. That means you're passing 2/3 of all races (betting one horse to win). I know, I know, it hurts to pass after you've put all that time and energy into a race. But you don't have to pass. You just have to pass making a win bet. If that 3/5 shot is legitimate there's no reason to not put him on top of an exotic wager. But you don't have to bet him to win. There's another old hossy adage, "Ain't a man alive who paid his mortgage at 3 to 5."