Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lone speed · 02-22-2012, 08:55 PM

Lsosa54....

You seem determine to solve this race.....that's great diligence and persistence.

Normally, I wouldn't touch a race with lightly raced horses, but this payout seems justified to throw some wood into the campfire....

My approach is full of adjustments, so I don't recommend anyone to follow my steps. I am content to play the adjustments that I make IF I play this type of race.

I'll Have Another last raced in August of 2011 so that is 6 months of development for a 2 year old on the Jockey Club scale of development.

6 1/2 furlong is a sprint race but it is interchangable with a route race at a 1 1/16th distance just like 6.4 turf sprint down at Santa Anita hillside turf course is really a mile turf route which sets up well for a turf miler. Anyways, this is subject to opinions and different philosophies.

I'll Have Another earned a 84 Beyer from that race which was won by Creative Cause. A Derby contender this year. The projected improvement from August to today's race in February according to the Jockey Club's scale is 3 lengths or (3 times 2beyer points for each length) +6 Beyer points which improves the 84 Beyer to 90 Beyer for today's projections. I'll plug in a 90 Beyer to a route projection program that was developed by an acquiantance. I got a speed variant of (-2.8) for that 6 1/2 furlong race.

Now always keep in mind that some horses are just natural routers so using their sprint races would not do any justice...but this exercise is to get a ballpark figure or projection.

I used some of the pars from the RacingDigest and the (-2.8) variant and using a route projection based on deceleration, I get a projected time for I'll Have Another at Hollywood Park at: 23.2 46.4 110.3 and 142.3...(times in fifths) or 23.4 46.8 110.6 and 142.6 (in tenths)

Using the projected times, it looks that I'll Have Another has a huge pace advantage in today's match up against contenders who have faced slower fractions routing....Best of luck

I did not play this race nor do I make any claims of wouldhave, shouldhave, etc....

02-22-2012, 08:55 PM	#8
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 697	Lsosa54.... You seem determine to solve this race.....that's great diligence and persistence. Normally, I wouldn't touch a race with lightly raced horses, but this payout seems justified to throw some wood into the campfire.... My approach is full of adjustments, so I don't recommend anyone to follow my steps. I am content to play the adjustments that I make IF I play this type of race. I'll Have Another last raced in August of 2011 so that is 6 months of development for a 2 year old on the Jockey Club scale of development. 6 1/2 furlong is a sprint race but it is interchangable with a route race at a 1 1/16th distance just like 6.4 turf sprint down at Santa Anita hillside turf course is really a mile turf route which sets up well for a turf miler. Anyways, this is subject to opinions and different philosophies. I'll Have Another earned a 84 Beyer from that race which was won by Creative Cause. A Derby contender this year. The projected improvement from August to today's race in February according to the Jockey Club's scale is 3 lengths or (3 times 2beyer points for each length) +6 Beyer points which improves the 84 Beyer to 90 Beyer for today's projections. I'll plug in a 90 Beyer to a route projection program that was developed by an acquiantance. I got a speed variant of (-2.8) for that 6 1/2 furlong race. Now always keep in mind that some horses are just natural routers so using their sprint races would not do any justice...but this exercise is to get a ballpark figure or projection. I used some of the pars from the RacingDigest and the (-2.8) variant and using a route projection based on deceleration, I get a projected time for I'll Have Another at Hollywood Park at: 23.2 46.4 110.3 and 142.3...(times in fifths) or 23.4 46.8 110.6 and 142.6 (in tenths) Using the projected times, it looks that I'll Have Another has a huge pace advantage in today's match up against contenders who have faced slower fractions routing....Best of luck I did not play this race nor do I make any claims of wouldhave, shouldhave, etc.... Last edited by lone speed; 02-22-2012 at 09:01 PM.