Quote:
Originally Posted by joseph
My DTV settings are the deafault settings. I do not have New Pace in my program.
Should I still set my DTV settings where Ted has them set -15
+ 15 or is that only for those using the New Pace program ?
This setup
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Joseph,
The range of DTVs (Daily Track Variant) you permit to be used in computing the Adjusted SR is unrelated to NewPace. You use adjusted figures
everywhere in RDSS, so you must determine if the rationale behind limiting some of the extreme DTV values seems valid to you.
The rationale is: since 0 DTV is precisely
par or
average for a given track, surface and distance, and negative DTVs indicate final times
FASTER than that par, and positive DTVs indicate
SLOWER than that par - and we
slow down raw call times for FAST DTVs to normalize our Adjusted times (and thus subsequent velocities, and energy %, and compound factors and Line Scores ...), and
speed up raw call times for SLOW DTVs - then, if a particular line has a very FAST DTV (e.g. -30) or a very SLOW DTV (e.g. +30), it may either penalize or over-credit the horse's adjusted times if we use too much of that DTV.
A given race's final times are not ONLY the result of the inherent surface condition that particular day (whether drying, freshly wet, sealed, frozen, deeply harrowed, whatever ...), but are also affected by the calibre of competition and the way the race way run - i.e. by the matchup of the horses running. There is inherent imprecision in using other than the supplied DTV values, but limiting excesses is a method of 'smoothing' swings of apparent track speed and may give you consistent longer term results.
I set my DTV range to -15 ... +15. As an exercise, pick a horse which appears to run consistently and which also shows some very fast or very slow DTVs in its history. Observe its variation in Speed Ratings when you set the range DTV range to Full (-50 ... +50) compared to when you set it to a tighter range (don't forget to clear the Cache for that race in between comparisons). The SR range for a consistent horse should not vary as wildly as the DTV range. I believe you will find that limiting the excesses of DTV will cause a consistent horse's SR (and all the other Adjusted figures) to similarly appear more consistent.
Limiting the DTV range will absolutely lose you a few races where a plodder was elevated to top rank by crediting him with time from a SLOWly run race, and conversely downgrade a horse from a paceline run against a fast DTV. The long term is the aim here, AND - to encourage you to be aware and
wary of extremes of DTV and, as in all things, not to expect the software to predict horses as
regularly capable of things they have not necessarily done in real life. In other words, guard against '
fun with numbers'.
Also note that by default, whatever DTV we accept (whether limiting excesses in range or not), we further use - by default - 50% of that DTV in determining the time value to speed up or slow down our raw call times. You can choose to use 100% of the DTV or 0%, though I do recommend the Default of 50%.
Hope this helps a bit.
Ted