Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
Thank you.
If its possible, If you don't mind would it be asking too much to do the same analysis with horses that went off at 4/1 and above
Only because Doc's guidelines are to back up a win bet on horses that will pay
over $10 with a place bet
thanks
Bill
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Hello Bill,
I hope you don't mind if I change your request slightly.
Instead of running the whole thing all over again starting with 4/1 and higher, and since the results of 7/1 or higher are already posted, I thought it might be more informative if I did 4/1 to 4.99/1 as a group, 5/1 to 5.99/1 as a group and lastly, 6/1 to 6.99/1 as a group. Here are the results.
I used the same 82,985 races.
In the 4.0/1 to 4.99/1 trial, there were a total of 47.704 horses that fell into this group.
Of those 47,704 horses;
7,778 of them “placed”. This represents 16.30% of the total group.
7,148 of them “won”. This represents 14.98% of the total group.
This is a total of 14,926 possible place bets won. This represents 31.28% of the total group.
Notice that 52.11% placed and DID NOT WIN, while 47.89% WON.
The average win price was $10.82
The average place price was $5.24
Betting $2 to “place” on every horse in the group comes to $95,408.
Total “place” bets won (including horses that won) comes to $78,212. A loss of $17,196.
Betting $2 to “win” on every horse in the group comes to $95,408.
Total “win” bets won comes to $77,341. A loss of $18,067.
Notice that at this range of odds, it is almost 50-50 win to place. The lower the odds, the better the chance of the horse running second.
On to the group of 5.0/1 to 5.99/1.
_____________________________________________________________
In the 5.0/1 to 5.99/1 trial, there were a total of 38,840 horses that fell into this group.
Of those 38,840 horses;
5,930 of them “placed”. This represents 15.27% of the total group.
4,836 of them “won”. This represents 12.458% of the total group.
This is a total of 10,763 possible place bets won. This represents 27.71% of the total group. Notice the decline from the previous group.
Notice that 55.10% placed and DID NOT WIN, while 44.93% WON.
The average win price was $12.83
The average place price was $5.74
Betting $2 to “place” on every horse in the group comes to $77,680.
Total “place” bets won (including horses that won) comes to $61,780. A loss of $15,900.
Betting $2 to “win” on every horse in the group comes to $77,680.
Total “win” bets won comes to $62,046. A loss of $15,634.
Notice that increasing the odds just one full point, betting to win, although still a loss, is LESS of a loss than betting to place, even though the win% in this group is lower than the previous group.
On to the 6.0/1 to 6.99/1 group.
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In the 6.0/1 to 6.99/1 trial, there were a total of 33,320 horses that fell into this group.
Of those 33,320 horses;
4,441 of them “placed”. This represents 13.33% of the total group.
3,506 of them “won”. This represents 10.52% of the total group.
This is a total of 7,947 possible place bets won. This represents 23.85% of the total group. Notice the decline from the previous two groups.
Notice that 55.88% placed and DID NOT WIN, while 44.12% WON.
The average win price was $14.83
The average place price was $6.40
Betting $2 to “place” on every horse in the group comes to $66,640.
Total “place” bets won (including horses that won) comes to $50836. A loss of $15,804.
Betting $2 to “win” on every horse in the group comes to $66,640.
Total “win” bets won comes to $51,994. A loss of $14,646.
Notice that increasing the odds just one full point again, betting to win, although still a loss, is LESS of a loss than betting to place, even though the win% in this group is lower than the previous group.
Let’s look at the average win/place prices for each group.
4/1 to 4.99/1 = win/$10.82 – place/$5.24 (difference between win and place = $5.58)
5/1 to 5.99/1 = win/$12.83 – place/$5.74 (difference between win and place = $7.09)
6/1 to 6.99/1 = win/$14.83 – place/$6.40 (difference between win and place = $8.43)
Notice that although we are only increasing the odds 1 full point at a time, there is a big difference between win and place prices as we move up the odds ladder. This becomes even more pronounced as the odds get higher.