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I think the need to win a race is why most people with sound handicapping principles lose long term. The takeout and rebates are such that good short price horses really get pounded in the win pool. Heck, so so horses that should be 3-1 are now bet down to 8-5 or so. For most people, I feel that if they cannot overcome the stress of losing several races in a row, they stand little chance to be long term winners.
Reachable rebates for the average player have driven down the prices of logical horses even further. My sweet spot for win bets is in the 7/2 to 6-1 range, however I am never swayed against a horse I like if say it is 30-1 or greater. I have to stay out of many races due to the lower odds of logical horses in the win pool compared to say 1990.
Everybody has their own comfort zone for sure. I am not comfortable betting horses at 2-1 or less. My way is not the only way, but it is what works for me. Overcoming psychological barriers is very difficult but years of losing trying to win a race as opposed to winning at the races forced me to change my mindset.
Jim
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