Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkWilson
How might one project a 5.5f sprint to a 1m route?
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My answer would be:
very carefully!
What it takes to win a 5.5f distance is different than what it takes to win a mile. The 5.5f effort will likely tell you very little in itself about what the horse may do running 8f, regardless of how you project it, or decelerate it.
If you have a bunch of 2 YO or 3 YO all of whom have never run a route, what do you really know about how they can run at the longer distance? If you have had several successful attempts at 5 5.f (or 6f, etc) and a few unsuccessful ones at 8, that tells you something - use the 8f efforts to predict how they will do at 8f, not the 5.5f ones.
If for whatever reasons (DD, Pick3) you are compelled to pick something in a leg of a multi-5race bet and you are forcedproject a 5.5f to a route - use what tools you can to see ANY consistent signs of
Late distribution of energy (use 6f races as tests of this as well) as this distribution is what will be required, in general, for successful routing. Don't just look for gains of position (easy visual cues) - look for relative disbursement of energy after the 4f point.
But like wondering how a horse will take to Turf the first time, wondering how a horse who has maneuvered short distances will manage over a route is a guessing game. Don't usually speculate on that (with too much money) unless you have a compelling reason. Not only the physical requirements for getting a route different than a short sprint, but the mental requirements (of the horse) are different as well - the horse has to 'focus' over a longer run, it will likely either have to maintain at the front for longer (rating its former sprint energy more) or learn how to pass horses if it runs further behind. Some horses are just not mentally dominant enough (in the herd) to feel comfortable passing
all the horses, and may prefer to be
in company more than they prefer to win (despite the jockey's urgings!). Or feel quite satisfied with their effort if they pass
most of the horses (different to how the bettors feel in the same race, on the same horse ...). The best way to predict how a sprinter does in a route, is to see how he does in a route! Use a longer sprint race if you can.
Which I guess is the same thing
FTL said above, only with less words
If you must, use
Bill V's suggestions above. Here are a few examples from RDSS (original 5.5f and other distances) in the upper section, projections
to 8f (including a deceleration formula) in the lower section of each image (DTV and ITV are excluded from this example).
...... 
