Fourthplaceitis.
Here is why it is important to get the run style right. My lone S went out and led the field to the 3/4 pole. Although I see nothing but Late Blue in the PPs, the horse actually broke 1st and 2nd in its last two races. I'm sure that was a clue. The second line back would have predicted what the horse would do tonight.
Problem: Is anyone in the habit of selecting the worst of the last three lines? Was this one really a legitimate contender?
Solution: Add a second horse to the win bet.
After thinking it over during an hour drive this afternoon here is the position I took on this race in real life. (I'm a two buck chuck for now, still learning.)