[BrandonG]

My first question to the members of the site. I usually answer my own questions through practice, trial and error, and the wealth of knowledge already posted by members to the site, but this question has bothered me for a while and to my knowledge, it has not been answered although another member posted a similar question years ago but it wasn't answered.

My question is about final fraction analysis in handicapping. I have used Jim Lehane's Calibration Handicapping technique in which you compute the final frac of a horse's time by crediting it with lgths gained in the final fraction of the race. For example, take a 6f race, 2d call time of 46.0, final time 112.0-horse was behind 4 lgths at the half mile and 1 lgth at the finish. Lehane's method computes the actual final frac time as 25.2 (26s - .3 for lgths gained). If u have read Lehane's book, u know he computes final fracs of the runners u selected as contenders and then compares the best FF time last time out, along w/other factors such as speed, class, etc.

The next technique I have used is Projected Power Fractions which Mike Pizzola utilized in his book Handicapping Magic. Its a bit different, take the ex. race I just gave u. Pizzola would give the same horse a final fraction time (or PPF) of 26.1. Now it may seem it doesn't make much difference which method u use, but believe me...it does. Some of the horses you select as contenders in the race may have superior actual final frac times if computed by Lehane's method (wherein u credit for lgths gained in the ff), but the same horse may have inferior numbers if computed by Pizzola's "projected power fractions" method b/c he adds (or penalizes) the horse's FF time by the no. of lgths behind at the 2d call.

Quite simply, the question is this: In your opinion, should a horse be given credit for lgths gained in the final fraction of a race w/o consideration of how far behind the horse was at the 2d call (Lehane)? Or should the horse be penalized by the lgths behind it was at the 2d call when computing the final fraction times of a horses' prior race (Pizzola). Or is their some sort of hybrid method to computing final fraction times that have been used w/success?

I would appreciate any insight (especially if supported by prior experience w/the 2 methods). If you don't emphasize final fraction analysis in your handicapping method, then ignore. I only posted this b/c its a method I use along w/traditional pace analysis. I certainly dont want to invite criticism of either Lehane nor Pizzola or get into a discussion of various handicapping methods. I have my own (hybrid of "traditional" methods used by Brohammer, Jim Bradshaw, Pizzola, Lehane, Sartin, Talbout, etc).

I know you guys have ur own methods and I just want some advice, insight, etc related to this issue. Thanks in advance.
Brandon