Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Cincyhorseplayer · 10-28-2012, 01:48 PM

I think it was just a formful day.They aren't always going to be like this.Looking at tracks during the week it was chalk city.

I have some issues though.

1)I can't handicap form,class,or probable pace without a racing form.I can't stand to look at a computer for basic handicapping.

2)Looking at 3 sets of speed figures I find myself perplexed about final decisions.I will say this though,the fights and arguments(self contained!) I've had with trackmaster ratings,it happened 3 times with turf races at Belmont,they have been right when I think they are wrong.Trust issues with anything new is always an obstacle,no matter the belief in something.

3)Picking contenders.Anybody that has handicapped for years is able to isolate contenders.I think there is an art or at least a virtuous utility factor in who you include or disinclude.If a non contender has numbers that jump out at you they have to be looked at again.I love outrun lines on shippers but sometimes internal pace of races are hidden in running lines on horses that have been at the same level.They look mediocre but have an incredible race in there recently.This is a major plus with RDSS.It puts you on it.And unless you are dealing with a younger horse or a lightly raced horse that has a new pace top or is coming into their own(Afleeting Lady yesterday),it's pretty easy to throw out horses when the total speed or energy disparity is big.I have a lot to work on in fine tuning this.It's real easy to find expectation races in the PP's and rate off that when IMO it's better to put such horses as marginal contenders.I can deal with a 10% damage to the win % as long as I'm blasting off on fit and top ranked horses.

4)Betting methodology.I'm not opposed to automatic bets if something is formful and RDSS proved that to me bigtime yesterday.I'd like to hear more about the way you guys bet(I have read all your contest threads BTW,good stuff).I use a 3 unit win,win/place method on single horses that nets a 35% ROI.Occasionally I'll split that to 2 contenders and I'm leaning this way philosophically but I haven't resolved it in my mind.My #1-2 contenders win overall about 50-60% of the time depending on time and place,and the win% and average mutuels are nearly identical.RDSS from what I've seen this week is better and picks longer odds.

5)Exactas.I'm really curious to see how this plays out in the future.From my experience the 1-2,2-1,1-3,2-3 combinations are what wins the most percentage wise,there is a dropoff on the 3-1,3-2 and 1-4,1-5 in my play.I'm praying for formfulness in this area.I've had my best winning streaks ever when I'm in tune with the exacta.

I'm still adrift in the rating though.I know what they are but don't know the depth of thought behind them.I see huge potential in focusing on certain areas based on probable pace and am dying to start modeling turf tendencies.I'm off races til Thursday and diving into the follow ups.I printed about 375 pages Friday.That ought to keep me busy.Can't wait til I catch up with you guys on the knowledge.I feel like I'm standing around with a wet nose and a box of tissues.Have to start somewhere though!!

10-28-2012, 01:48 PM	#4
Cincyhorseplayer AlwNW3X Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 45	I think it was just a formful day.They aren't always going to be like this.Looking at tracks during the week it was chalk city. I have some issues though. 1)I can't handicap form,class,or probable pace without a racing form.I can't stand to look at a computer for basic handicapping. 2)Looking at 3 sets of speed figures I find myself perplexed about final decisions.I will say this though,the fights and arguments(self contained!) I've had with trackmaster ratings,it happened 3 times with turf races at Belmont,they have been right when I think they are wrong.Trust issues with anything new is always an obstacle,no matter the belief in something. 3)Picking contenders.Anybody that has handicapped for years is able to isolate contenders.I think there is an art or at least a virtuous utility factor in who you include or disinclude.If a non contender has numbers that jump out at you they have to be looked at again.I love outrun lines on shippers but sometimes internal pace of races are hidden in running lines on horses that have been at the same level.They look mediocre but have an incredible race in there recently.This is a major plus with RDSS.It puts you on it.And unless you are dealing with a younger horse or a lightly raced horse that has a new pace top or is coming into their own(Afleeting Lady yesterday),it's pretty easy to throw out horses when the total speed or energy disparity is big.I have a lot to work on in fine tuning this.It's real easy to find expectation races in the PP's and rate off that when IMO it's better to put such horses as marginal contenders.I can deal with a 10% damage to the win % as long as I'm blasting off on fit and top ranked horses. 4)Betting methodology.I'm not opposed to automatic bets if something is formful and RDSS proved that to me bigtime yesterday.I'd like to hear more about the way you guys bet(I have read all your contest threads BTW,good stuff).I use a 3 unit win,win/place method on single horses that nets a 35% ROI.Occasionally I'll split that to 2 contenders and I'm leaning this way philosophically but I haven't resolved it in my mind.My #1-2 contenders win overall about 50-60% of the time depending on time and place,and the win% and average mutuels are nearly identical.RDSS from what I've seen this week is better and picks longer odds. 5)Exactas.I'm really curious to see how this plays out in the future.From my experience the 1-2,2-1,1-3,2-3 combinations are what wins the most percentage wise,there is a dropoff on the 3-1,3-2 and 1-4,1-5 in my play.I'm praying for formfulness in this area.I've had my best winning streaks ever when I'm in tune with the exacta. I'm still adrift in the rating though.I know what they are but don't know the depth of thought behind them.I see huge potential in focusing on certain areas based on probable pace and am dying to start modeling turf tendencies.I'm off races til Thursday and diving into the follow ups.I printed about 375 pages Friday.That ought to keep me busy.Can't wait til I catch up with you guys on the knowledge.I feel like I'm standing around with a wet nose and a box of tissues.Have to start somewhere though!!