Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - chuckg

chuckg · 11-08-2012, 06:44 PM

Bill,
Thanks for the workup with my chosen lines. I went way back to line 7 on purpose for the 5 horse because it showed him getting the lead and taking control of the race at the stretch call. (At least compared to today's company). I backed off of him because he took forever to make it home from the stretch. There are also three other lines in his PP that had great early paces but then he took his sweet old time getting in. That scared me away from betting him.

That 7th back running line exactly matched his race today, second to first, as you pointed out. The way you had the segments screen sorted out would have won the race, especially in your use of the the second fraction. I notice that whenever I lose a race that I think is an obvious no-brainer at Finger Lakes it is to the horse that has command of the race at the top of the stretch on the segments or velocity screen. Even though I put that old line in there to try to make the 5 the winner, I went searching for a horse who could best the favorite, who wound up coming in second. I took my usual approach of assuming that with so may earlies this race would run late.

I wound up winning the last three races on the card, because two of them went other than early, and got paid for the pic3 at $67. If I had worked up the 6th the way you did the pic4 would have paid me $920.

I will print out your workup for next time.
Thanks again.

11-08-2012, 06:44 PM	#18
chuckg Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 168	Bill, Thanks for the workup with my chosen lines. I went way back to line 7 on purpose for the 5 horse because it showed him getting the lead and taking control of the race at the stretch call. (At least compared to today's company). I backed off of him because he took forever to make it home from the stretch. There are also three other lines in his PP that had great early paces but then he took his sweet old time getting in. That scared me away from betting him. That 7th back running line exactly matched his race today, second to first, as you pointed out. The way you had the segments screen sorted out would have won the race, especially in your use of the the second fraction. I notice that whenever I lose a race that I think is an obvious no-brainer at Finger Lakes it is to the horse that has command of the race at the top of the stretch on the segments or velocity screen. Even though I put that old line in there to try to make the 5 the winner, I went searching for a horse who could best the favorite, who wound up coming in second. I took my usual approach of assuming that with so may earlies this race would run late. I wound up winning the last three races on the card, because two of them went other than early, and got paid for the pic3 at $67. If I had worked up the 6th the way you did the pic4 would have paid me $920. I will print out your workup for next time. Thanks again.