Quote:
Originally Posted by chuckg
And in the meantime, search the forum for threads on how to deal with early horses correctly.
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I have found that the hardest thing there is for the majority of people to do, is evaluate EARLY horses correctly.
I read a comment by a "pundit", whose name everyone would recognize, that said you could not make money betting early horses because they don't pay enough money. Well, there's one expert that has no idea what he is talking about. If it were not for early horses paying larger mutuals, I would be sleeping in the street!
Most people only land on early horses when they use a line from an early horse where it won or ran a very close 2nd or 3rd. I think the reason is obvious. When an early horse wins or runs a very close 2nd or 3rd, it is no longer real deficient in third fraction or in vdc. However, this is the reason early horses like these pay shorter prices.
In order to be successful, especially with early horses, you have to be able to determine if that early horse that fades (backs up) will control today's pace and go on to win. Not an easy thing to do.
I have written this MANY TIMES. "Hat" said horse racing is an easy game. When the gates open one horse gets the lead. If no other horse can pass it, it wins.
Easy for "Hat" to say, right?
Well, it's easy for anyone once they gain an understanding.
Let me put it this way.
A person bets a closer. The early horse wins and the closer is never a factor.
Are they deterred from betting a closer in the next race? Not at all.
But if a person bets an early horse and it fades down the stretch, are they deterred from betting another early horse? You bet they are!
The commonly heard phrase would be something like "that blankity blank QUITTER!"
No body wants to bet on a horse that they think will fade coming down the stretch, but it doesn't matter to them if their closer doesn't close.
Somehow or another, that just doesn't make sense to me. A loss is a loss.
With millions of horses and hundreds of thousands of races in a database, I can tell you that 40% of all races are won by horses that are running 1,2,3 at the first call. I can also tell you that more than 70% of all races are won by horses running 1,2,3 at the second call. This information was gleaned from ALL races on ALL surfaces at ALL tracks.
Certainly, one should be aware of how horses are performing at the track(s) they play on a regular basis, but that is the overall picture. A starting point, if you will.
I know this doesn't answer your question about "how" to deal with early horses, but the answer does not lie in a simple one sentence answer. All I can tell you is this. If you ONLY rely on energy disbursement, you will not get the answer. That's not going to be a popular answer here, but it is the way it is.
And you better pay attention to the first call..
Although the second call has long been considered the "early" call, the race (at any distance) is mostly over at that point. For example, in a 6 furlong race, the race is 67% complete at the second call. In an 8 furlong race at the second call, the race is 75% complete. So what would you call the FIRST CALL? The first call IS THE EARLY CALL. It is the first call that sets the tone for the rest of the race.
Again, I will call on the "Hat". He often said "the race starts when the gates open". The gates don't open at the second call.