Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
FTL
This horse looks to me like a bad bet at 5/2 I don't want to use line 4
Its its best ever race. To me it looks like the horse maybe injured itself
in that race.
Its been dropping and going shorter distances since that race and running
zero's
If I used this horse Should I rate it off the last line Even than its shaky as a (+)
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Bill,
This horse is a bad bet at any price.
I would not consider it a contender in today's race....and DIDN'T consider it a contender since I was watching PRX today.
Line 4 is out of the question. If this line is so predictive of today's performance, then why wasn't it predictive in its' last three races and why did the horse run so bad in the last three races?
I would never give this horse a '(+)" in its' last line, for the following reasons.
1 - did it run 1st,2nd or 3rd?
2 - did it run 1st or 2nd at the first and/or second calls?
3 - did it make a good middle move(from first call to second call) to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call?
The answer to all three questions is "NO"! Therefore it gets a "0" from me.
This is a 5 year old at the end of its' 5 year old season. Although it may have sustained an injury in line 4, as you suggested, I don't think that is the case since the horse was right back to the races 13 days later.
Actually, until its' last race, the horse had been running longer distances since line 4. It went from 5.5f in line 4, to 6.0f in line 3, to 6.5f in line 2 and then it dropped back in distance to 5f in its' last line.
Rather than use a "shaky" last line, just throw the horse out as a non-contender. That's what I did.
The winner of this race paid $9.20 and I suspect it paid that much for 3 primary reasons. Those reasons are....the #3 horse, the #6 horse and the #7 horse. All are taking a fairly significant drop in class. Had it not been for those three horses, I suspect the winner would have paid more in the neighborhood of $4.00. The public likes drop down horses and this race gave them three to bet on.
That pretty much covers your question(s) to me. The rest of my comments here should really go in the "Making Money With Early" thread, but I'm here talking about this race anyway, so here goes.
All you have to do in this race is
look at the first two calls for each horse. I'm going to suggest you look at the first two calls for each horse using their last 5 races. Why? The last 5 races are the most recent. Most horses don't run 5 races in the last 90 days, so this will generally take you back a little further, but what the horse has done in the "recent past" is of much more importance than what it has done in its' "ancient history past".
At any rate, if you just look at the first two calls for each horse, eliminating any turf race or route races that may be part of those last 5 races, I don't think anyone will have a problem identifying the "TRUE EARLY" horse in this race...the winner #1. In its' last 5 races it has failed to have the lead at the first two calls just once, line 4 at the second call where it was behind by a half length.
Beside that, review each horses first call ONLY. What horse is consistently close to the lead that can challenge the #1 horse? None.
The result? A fairly easy wire to wire win.