Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
Hi FTL
I see what your saying about the 3. I still think something went wrong after
that line 4 race, maybe you can expand on why and if they are dropping
it in class way down to 7500 Nw 1 Y and after nearly winning for 16000?
I gave the 3 the "Shakey" plus with a zero 'because it finished 5th
but only beaten by 3 lenghts. It made its move late and only had 5 furlongs to do I thought I should rate it off the last line since it was dropping in class down from 12000 to 7500 an d going back to 6.5 furlongs
You bring up many good points about the winner # 1
I would like to add todays parx race 3 into the making money with early
thread I have arked my pace lines
I then will post the RDSS segments screen
GS
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Bill,
I can only speculate on the reason for the drop in class. Before I do that, consider that after the race 4 back it was back in a race in 13 days, then it was back in a race in 19 days, then it was in a race again in 17 days and then again in 19 days. This is not the racing schedule of a horse that is injured. If this horse is, indeed injured, perhaps the trainer should be in some other line of work. Racing an injured horse 5 times in a period of 70 days is a recipe for disaster (breaking the horse down).
Ok, in the race of line 4, the horse was entered for 16K with a NW16MX condition. The class of the race in line 3 is clearly over the horses head. Then there was a return to the same claiming price and condition as line 4, where it ran poorly. Line 1 finds the horse in an "open" 12,500 claiming race at 5 furlongs. While it is true that it ran 5th, beaten 3 lengths, there were only 9 horses in the race, so this horse was only able to finish right in the middle, beating 4 horses but being beaten by 4 horses. It ran 7,7,7,5
having never impacted the running or outcome of the race. I suspect that today's drop to the same condition where it was last successful, but for half the claiming price, was an effort to learn just where the horse is at this point. In other words, to find out just what level of competition it is currently able to compete at. I know "I" don't want to bet on that type of horse.
Maybe the owner and trainer can afford to "speculate", but I can't. I have to see the horse for what it is. A horse that is currently out of form and searching for a level where it can compete. And it certainly can't compete early with the #1 horse. Obviously, it is not the same horse as it was four races ago.
One last thought. If you truly believe this horse was injured 4 races back, why would you want to make it a contender today?