Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
here is a tricky race can we make money with a early ?
Here are my lines
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It's not as 'tricky" as you think.
Below I have attached the horses in the race once again. This time I marked a few things.
First, I eliminated races that were the wrong distance and surface.
Second, I marked a couple of horses where they are questionable. As an example;
#2, the second best early type, has been claimed out of every claiming race it has been in, so it is having trouble finding a home where it can get into a routine. Secondly, I don't understand the reason for all the claims. I marked where this horse has just 4 wins from 40 lifetime starts without a win in its' last 10 starts. What's the interest?
#3, here is another horse that has 1 win in 12 starts this year and is winless in its' last 10 starts.
#7, this horse has just 4 wins in 50 lifetime starts.
By comparison, the #1 horse has won 9 races in just 29 starts.
Third, after excluding the races that were not similar in distance and surface, I marked the first call and the second call for each horse.
All you have to do is look at these two calls for each horse and it becomes clear which horse will have the lead.
You will also have no problem in identifying the horse that appears to be the sole threat to the #1 horse, which is the #2 horse.
Unfortunately for the #2 horse, it just isn't fast enough to outrun the #1 early and with a lifetime record of 4 for 40, it just doesn't win often. The rest of the horses don't have the style required to put pressure on the #1 early, therefore, the #1 is a very good candidate to go wire to wire against this field.
This race was discussed, in part, in another thread. If you would like to read what I wrote there, here is a link.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=8784&page=4