I didn't have to look far for this material. It comes from Bill V's post in the contest today. Here's is what I said to Bill in an email in answer to the question he asked in his post, "Will anybody have any late energy to close and charge down the lane?"
Let me try to answer your question.
By my measure, there are 4 EARLY types in this race of a field of 7.
The #2 horse is miserably bad. Down to 6 horses.
Forget the energy generated ESP, just look at the 6 horses that remain.
Is there really any horse that can close? NO.
So what happens in a race like this.
One of the early horses is going to win.
Which one is the most likely?
The one that can outrun the other early horses right from the gate.
In other words, the BEST early.
In this case....YOUR #8!
I also told Bill, the best 3 first fraction horses (by my measure) ran 1st, 3rd, 2nd.
Here is a link to Bill's post.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=8776&page=2