Quote:
Originally Posted by 5Chalky5
FTL -
When you say adjust the times from track do you mean horses coming to BHP from SA should have their raw times adjusted to be more in line what they would have run over BHP?
Kyle
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In a word…”YES”.
Years ago when the methodology was first getting started and when Tom Brohamer was making a name for himself, they were southern California guys. In those days all three southern California tracks were dirt tracks. Have you ever heard the line “it never rains in southern California”? Well, the three southern California tracks used to be like concrete highways. The horses at any of these three tracks ran lightning fast times that were pretty comparable. It was fairly easy to match using “raw” times, since the times weren’t that far apart. HOWEVER…………
At that same time period, I was handicapping tracks in the mid-atlantic states, such as LRL, PIM and BOW(that is Bowie, now defunct) in Maryland or GS (Garden State, now defunct), MTH and ATL (basically defunct) in New Jersey or PEN and KEY (Keystone, now PRX). Try matching those tracks during the winter months, when the “track variant” is HIGHER than the speed rating!! You will quickly learn that adjustments are needed.
As I said earlier in this thread, racing use to be “on a circuit”. Today, you will find horses shipping all over the place. Take MNR as an example. I see horses shipping in from PEN, CD, LRL, PID, HOO, BEU, RD, TDN, TP and CT, which should cover the majority of tracks I have seen horses shipping in from. If you think all these tracks are equal, you will have a problem. They are not. They are different with regard to surface (dirt or artificial) and they are different with regard to class. And don’t kid yourself, better class horses run faster than lower class horses.
At this point in my handicapping evolution, it doesn’t matter which tracks I’m looking at. I have a program that does all the adjusting for me, so it is not a problem and does not create any extra work. It happens automatically. All I do is periodically update my “pars file”.
Having said all that, I’ll return to my one word answer…..”YES”!