[For The Lead]

JIMBOB1002 played the 2nd race at FL today in the December contest.
Bill V and I had a conversation about the winner (which JIMBOB1002 had) and I wanted to share our discussion about it with everyone.

First, I will write the discussion, followed by a look at the horse.

Bill V pointed out that he labeled the horse an "EP" because it was no worse than 3rd at the second call and within 3 lengths of the winner at the second call.

I sent Bill the same screen shot posted here and explained that although he was technically correct, the horse's first call position and beaten lengths were actually better than the second call. I said," if this horse could talk, it would be screaming that it wants to be on or very close to the lead at the first call".

Also, in this race the#1 horse was actually the best first fraction horse, but it is 2 for 58 lifetime and not a serious contender for the win. However, breaking from the #1 post and with a short run to the first turn, there was no denying the #1 horse getting the lead from the gate.

The winner (#8) is the second best first fraction horse in the race, but is breaking from the outside 8 post. With a short run to the first turn, the best the #8 can hope for is to establish position around the first turn to the backstretch, at which point it can make its' run for the lead.

All of this is great in theory, but how do we know if the horse can "pull it off"?
Let's look at the horse's PP's. We can see it has only had three route races. The first two were for the same claiming price as today, but had a NW2Y (non winners of 2 races in a year) condition. The next route race was the horse's last line. Although it was running for the same claiming price again, you can see that there is no condition. That means the horse was in an "OPEN" race, which means any horse, whose connections are willing to lose the horse through the claim box for today's claiming price, is allowed to enter. It is a better race. Better than the other two route races the winner was in and certainly better than today's race, which although it is the same claiming price again, it has a NW1Y (non winners of a race in a year) condition. So the winner is getting a significant drop in condition today. In cheap claiming races these conditions are meaningful.

By the way, congratulations to JIMBOB1002 for connecting with this $32.80 WINNER!!