Here is an interesting race from PEN today. It is the 2nd race on the card.
Like the race I posted yesterday, it is filled with early type horses, but there is somewhat of a “twist” to this race or, at least, how to go about handicapping it.
Yesterday’s race was straight forward. Almost every horse had a good last line. All the horses had recent races. There were no real issues.
In this race, today, two of the early horses have not run in quite a while. One horse was off 161 days and the other horse was off 186 days. For those of you who read my posts, you know I eliminate horses that have been off this long, but these two horse are early horses and although they probably won’t win, they may still have an impact on the race. How will we know unless we put them in and see how the other early horses in the race stack up against them? Or, maybe they don’t matter if they aren’t the best early horse anyway. We’ll just have to put them in and see what happens.
IN NO CASE WILL THESE HORSES GET BET! In fact, before finishing the handicapping process, they will be eliminated. Depending on what we find, the race will either be betable or, perhaps, the race should be passed. We’ll find out.
Here's the rundown on each horse.
#1 - line 2. last race was the first race across the track at the current meet. This is right out of the Paceline Manual.
#2 - SCR
#3 - no line. as stated above, the last line will be used just for evaluation. this horse will not be bet or considered as a contender.
#4 - no line. as stated above, the last line will be used just for evaluation. this horse will not be bet or considered as a contender.
#5 - no line. I have no excuse for the last line and the horse is 3 for 30 lifetime, so it really doesn't warrant going back for a line.
#6 - last line.
#7 - last line.
#8 - last line.
As you can see on the first screen shot of the lines used, they are all either "+" or "(+)" races.
as stated above, the last line will be used just for evaluation. these horses will not be bet or be considered as contenders.
If you wonder why I highlight the "RS" column, it is because this is the column where I get to label the horse myself based on its' running style as I see it.
As you can see, the two horses that have been off are exactly even on "EPR". Also note, the #8, an EP, is capable of running right behind them.
On the segments screen, you can also see that the #8 has the second best second fraction, which puts it in a good position going to the second call.
Finally, the #8 is tops on the BL/BL screen.
The next post will show the race after the two horses that have been off are eliminated.