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Old 12-29-2012, 08:03 PM   #7
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
LRL 1st 12.29.12

I could put all my posts in the "picking lines and contenders" thread, since all my posts deal with that, but because this post is basically about "early" horses, I'll put it here.

I recently installed the new update that includes the “CSR” rating/ranking.
Also, I made one change to the “DEFAULT” settings. I decided to give “VAL4” a look.
So here is the first race from LRL today.
Here’s the field for this NW2L claiming race.

#1 – no line. The last line is encouraging, but doesn’t quite fit my criteria. There is no other line to choose from in the last 90 days.
#2 – last line. This is pretty straight forward. It is a “+” race from 31 days ago, same distance, same surface, same track. Keep in mind that this horse has had 17 starts with just one win.
#3 – last line. Another straight forward line selection. Similar distance, same surface and same track. Keep in mind that this horse has just 4 lifetime starts.
#4 – last line. Again, this is a straight forward line selection. Similar distance, same surface and same track. This horse is 1 for 10 lifetime.
#5 – no line. This horse has two lifetimes races. One from 278 days ago, so I won’t be using that line. It’s last line is from CT, a “bull ring” at the distance of 4.5 furlongs. I won’t use that line for the two reasons I just mentioned.
#6 – no line. This horse hasn’t run in 225 days.
#7 – line 2. Another straight forward line selection. The last line is a route and today is a sprint, so since line 2 is a sprint from just 31 days ago and the horse ran a “+” race, that’s my line. This horse is one for ten lifetime with "7" seconds and thirds (combined). it appears it struggles to actual win.

Ok, so we have a 7 horse field that I have reduced to just 4 contenders.

As usual, I will mark the attributes of the winner, #3, that paid $19.40 in this 7 horse field.

I know most of you are two horse bettors and that's alright, but you should take the time to look at these readouts.
#2 and #3 are tied on BL/BL.
#2 is ranked #1 for the new "CSR", while #3 is ranked 4th.
On the "ESP" generated by the program, #3 is the lone "E" horse.
On the segments screen, #3 owns the first fraction, second fraction and, of course, the second call, which is to say it is the 0.0 horse at both points.
Take notice of the second call on the segments screen. The #3 is the 0.0 horse and look at the computed beaten lengths for the other 3 horses. It is clear that the #3 has a decided advantage.
My point is, even though the #2 and #3 are tied on BL/BL, which horse has the better match up in this race?? I think the answer is clear.
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