Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveEdwards
Hi FTL (got it right this time!)
There is an interesting split between the three main contenders in terms of EPR, LPR & CPR, with each one presumably better suited than the other to different track conditions.
With this race were you taking into account the track profile? If so this leads onto my main question, depending on the prevailing conditions what would your thoughts be on when to change between a horse based on their profile.
Just to clarify as an example:
Horse A (strong EPR) is superior to Horse B (strong LPR) by say 10 lengths, but the track is running sustained. Horse A is still able to win due to it's superiority.
Horse C (strong EPR) is superior to Horse D (strong LPR) by say 3 lengths, and as above the track is running sustained. Now a trickier proposition.
Hope this is clear, if not please let me know & I'll do it again!
I notice you actually hit the trifecta with your contenders too!
Thanks.
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Actually, a track profile or model played no part in the analysis. SA just opened the day after Christmas so it is way to early for that. The analysis was made on the basis of an even playing track and the match up between the contenders.
I understand your question and, yes, once you have a clear profile and/or model, adjustments can be made to the analysis.
Yes, I noticed the exacta and trifecta were made up of my contenders, too. I'd like to tell you I am
that good, but that just wouldn't be true. However, when you use solid contenders that is bound to happen from time to time.
When I handicap a race, my goal is to pick the winner. I don't necessarily handicap for exactas or trifectas. They just happen.