Quote:
Originally Posted by Aldens_dad
My new years resolution was to Bet smart in 2013 with that being said I have not made a bet in 2013!!! I have been using RDSS for almost a year and have had success but its been intermittent. Maybe the issue is not selecting the right lines or just not knowing enough about horse racing. I have been reading the teaching files and thought what a great way to get a little help or feedback on my selections.
I am having problems posting my screenshots but heres the scenario. This is a 5K claiming race where it looks like there is one early horse that could wire this field. But according to the segments screen this horse is not even a contender. I am talking about horse #1
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Without getting involved in reviewing the entire race and in spite of the fact that the #1 horse was scratched, I'll just address the two horses you centered on, the #1 and #12.
Take a look at the first call history of each horse.
Do you really think the #12 horse is going to be 14 lengths in front of the #1 horse at the first call, especially when you consider the post they are breaking from and that there are other horses in between them that will also try for the lead?
You already made the point of "class", so I don't have to expand on that.
With regard to "RC" (race class), the race class assigned to each race is based on "strength of field", not claiming price or condition. This is a Trackmaster calculation.
As you review every horse, you should make a visual inspection of how the horse runs and change the "RS" label. Do NOT accept what the program provides unless you agree. Do you own work in this regard. In this case, the #12 horse is a "P" with "1" Quirin Speed point. On the other hand, the #1 is an "E" with "7" Quirin Speed Points. Again, do you really think the #12 is going to be 14 lengths in front of the #12?
This "visual" inspection, by you, is more important than the E/L sticks when it comes to where you can expect each horse to be positionally.Many horses expend their energy early, but DO NOT RUN EARLY.
Finally, the #12 horse had just one win from 19 starts last year and is just 3 for 31 lifetime, while the #1 had 3 wins from just 11 starts last year and is 3 for 14 lifetime. This simply tells you the #1 wins more often on a percentage basis than the #12. Horses that do not win very often are usually bad bets.