Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lone speed · 03-03-2013, 07:30 PM

I was going to write about a random race but in the end, I decided to write about the “greatest race loss ever”…..the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park…at a mile and a half on dirt.

Some tidbits about the main contenders in this greatest race in the history of the Jockey Club Gold Cup….

Seattle Slew- 4 year old Handicap division power house who was also the 3 year-old Triple Crown Champion the previous year…trained by W. Turner and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey, Angel Cordero….Seattle Slew won the Belmont Stakes at the same distance as the Jockey Club Gold Cup on dirt the previous year.

Affirmed…the 3year-old Triple Crown Champion trained by Hall of Fame trainer Laz Barrera and owned by Harbor View Farm who also entered Life’s Hope whose main purpose was to be a rabbit for Affirmed in this race . Affirmed’s jockey was the young teenager Steve Cauthen who rode him thru his Triple Crown victories…Affirmed also won the current year Belmont Stakes at the same distance as the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Exceller,,,Turf distance specialist from Europe and owned by Nelson Bunker Hunt and trained by the Bald Eagle, Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey, Bill Shoemaker. Exceller came within a half-length to The Minstrel in the King George VI in England and had won many turf races up to a mile and7/8 in Europe.

During the running of the early pace of the Jockey Gold Cup…Life’s Hope forced Seattle Slew to run suicidal splits of 45.1 and 1:09.2 and the saddle had slipped on Affirmed with Steve Cauthen trying to maintain balance and control of Affirmed.. Exceller was 22 lengths behind this torrid and blistering early pace for the mile and a half distance.

At the finish line, Exceller had put up a nose better than Seattle Slew, who had ran an incredible race in defeat….Great, great race….Affirmed finish in 5th…

Looking back at this race, we can say that Seattle Slew was forced to use up valuable early energy with those blistering early splits and that Affirmed was too close to that pace but also was disadvantaged when the saddle slipped. Exceller was 22 lengths behind in the parking lot of Belmont Park when he came on like a freight train to catch the Slew and defeating two Triple Crown Champions in the same race. With the luxury of looking back at this race in history, we can conclude that Exceller won the race on matchup…and Seattle Slew ran one of the greatest race in defeat….

There are so much data available today, especially in today’s media driven world….If one can put all these data to efficient and profitable use on a daily basis..then his profit is justifiably deserved….One is free to choose the amount of data that one wants to extrapolate to handicap the races…Thorograph has a huge databank on each entries about the trainers’ proficiency on 1st time starters, turf races, maiden races, 3rd race after a layoff, etc…possibilities of the horse bouncing…or moving up…etc….

I do understand JimG's strong stance about having data available and having the options to put them in context of a race....There was a lengthy discussion on the Thorograph board on"milkshake" trainers and the 40% win trainers like Rudy....the low win percentage of Hall of Fame trainers like Jack Van Berg and D.Wayne Lukas....or the lower win percentages of Todd Pletcher's outfit outside of Gulfstream Park....

03-03-2013, 07:30 PM	#9
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 697	Greatest race I was going to write about a random race but in the end, I decided to write about the “greatest race loss ever”…..the 1978 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park…at a mile and a half on dirt. Some tidbits about the main contenders in this greatest race in the history of the Jockey Club Gold Cup…. Seattle Slew- 4 year old Handicap division power house who was also the 3 year-old Triple Crown Champion the previous year…trained by W. Turner and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey, Angel Cordero….Seattle Slew won the Belmont Stakes at the same distance as the Jockey Club Gold Cup on dirt the previous year. Affirmed…the 3year-old Triple Crown Champion trained by Hall of Fame trainer Laz Barrera and owned by Harbor View Farm who also entered Life’s Hope whose main purpose was to be a rabbit for Affirmed in this race . Affirmed’s jockey was the young teenager Steve Cauthen who rode him thru his Triple Crown victories…Affirmed also won the current year Belmont Stakes at the same distance as the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Exceller,,,Turf distance specialist from Europe and owned by Nelson Bunker Hunt and trained by the Bald Eagle, Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey, Bill Shoemaker. Exceller came within a half-length to The Minstrel in the King George VI in England and had won many turf races up to a mile and7/8 in Europe. During the running of the early pace of the Jockey Gold Cup…Life’s Hope forced Seattle Slew to run suicidal splits of 45.1 and 1:09.2 and the saddle had slipped on Affirmed with Steve Cauthen trying to maintain balance and control of Affirmed.. Exceller was 22 lengths behind this torrid and blistering early pace for the mile and a half distance. At the finish line, Exceller had put up a nose better than Seattle Slew, who had ran an incredible race in defeat….Great, great race….Affirmed finish in 5th… Looking back at this race, we can say that Seattle Slew was forced to use up valuable early energy with those blistering early splits and that Affirmed was too close to that pace but also was disadvantaged when the saddle slipped. Exceller was 22 lengths behind in the parking lot of Belmont Park when he came on like a freight train to catch the Slew and defeating two Triple Crown Champions in the same race. With the luxury of looking back at this race in history, we can conclude that Exceller won the race on matchup…and Seattle Slew ran one of the greatest race in defeat…. There are so much data available today, especially in today’s media driven world….If one can put all these data to efficient and profitable use on a daily basis..then his profit is justifiably deserved….One is free to choose the amount of data that one wants to extrapolate to handicap the races…Thorograph has a huge databank on each entries about the trainers’ proficiency on 1st time starters, turf races, maiden races, 3rd race after a layoff, etc…possibilities of the horse bouncing…or moving up…etc…. I do understand JimG's strong stance about having data available and having the options to put them in context of a race....There was a lengthy discussion on the Thorograph board on"milkshake" trainers and the 40% win trainers like Rudy....the low win percentage of Hall of Fame trainers like Jack Van Berg and D.Wayne Lukas....or the lower win percentages of Todd Pletcher's outfit outside of Gulfstream Park....