I'm pretty much on the same page as Bill V.
I have always found that it is easier to pick the winner if you first eliminate the losers. So, following that procedure, here we go.
Here are the horse that do NOT get a line.
#2 - has one race since June of 2012. It was a sprint race and the horse did not run well. OUT.
#5 - in its' last race it finished 5th in an 8 horse field, so, it did not finish in the money. It did NOT make a good middle move (between the first and second calls) to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. Now, we could go back to line two, but what is the "valid" excuse? There isn't any. Line two is a good race against $10,000 claimers. Line one is a bad race against $16,000 claimers and today it is running against $20,000 claimers. OUT.
#7 - I don't think anybody has any problem throwing this horse out. It just doesn't fit at this track and this class level.
Ok, every other horse gets a line...their LAST LINE, because every other horse has a good last line. There is no reason to change it. They are on the VERY SAME surface and at either the VERY SAME or similar distance. Here they are.
As you can see, the #1 and #6 are the counter energy horses.
Herre we see that counter energy. The #1 has the best first and second fractions, while the #6 has the best third fraction+ total energy
On the BL/BL the #1 and #6 ranked 1,2.
And, of course, the results (chart) of the race.
