Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Santa Anita 3-29

Lord John · 03-28-2013, 11:40 PM

Pate, here are my thoughts:
8-E horse--blasts to the lead--is the one to catch
3-E has proven he can only win wire to wire but not fast enough-out
1-very suspect/ record shows a lot of layoffs, for me--out
2-has won at this distance twice BUT has to be within 2 lengths and at least 3rd to win--most likely won't get that today though last race shows she's in form--contender for now
4-very fast horse for final time BUT the +'s and 0's show that she hasn't been able to close the deal very often. She definitely has run against faster splits but the layoff concerns me and this field isn't weak. Because of Final time for me Contender for now
5-At 4-1 ML I'm licking my chops!!! Just missed last out and more importantly she was leading at the 8.0 furlong point. Has won at higher and can overcome a 23.0 first call. She has proven that she can run a sub 23 final quarter. My first OTE pick.
6-the unknown stretch-out ran evenly last out. Maybe
7-good horse. comes out of the same race as the 5 and 2. Honestly I believe the 5 is a faster horse at this distance.
Pate-The 8 is a very fast horse and his last line proves he can fight. Of the contenders-2, 4, 5, 6 and 7...I believe the 5 has the best shot at running down the 8. I would pick the 2 but I think the 2 needs more distance. Nonetheless the 2 will be flying late. So going with two horses I'm thinking a wire to wire job with 8 and the 5 as my OTE pick.
Let's see what others think. Good Luck!!!

03-28-2013, 11:40 PM	#4
Lord John AlwNW1X Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Inland Empire. Lived here since '74. Never knew about Pirco. Shame! Posts: 17	Sa 3 Pate, here are my thoughts: 8-E horse--blasts to the lead--is the one to catch 3-E has proven he can only win wire to wire but not fast enough-out 1-very suspect/ record shows a lot of layoffs, for me--out 2-has won at this distance twice BUT has to be within 2 lengths and at least 3rd to win--most likely won't get that today though last race shows she's in form--contender for now 4-very fast horse for final time BUT the +'s and 0's show that she hasn't been able to close the deal very often. She definitely has run against faster splits but the layoff concerns me and this field isn't weak. Because of Final time for me Contender for now 5-At 4-1 ML I'm licking my chops!!! Just missed last out and more importantly she was leading at the 8.0 furlong point. Has won at higher and can overcome a 23.0 first call. She has proven that she can run a sub 23 final quarter. My first OTE pick. 6-the unknown stretch-out ran evenly last out. Maybe 7-good horse. comes out of the same race as the 5 and 2. Honestly I believe the 5 is a faster horse at this distance. Pate-The 8 is a very fast horse and his last line proves he can fight. Of the contenders-2, 4, 5, 6 and 7...I believe the 5 has the best shot at running down the 8. I would pick the 2 but I think the 2 needs more distance. Nonetheless the 2 will be flying late. So going with two horses I'm thinking a wire to wire job with 8 and the 5 as my OTE pick. Let's see what others think. Good Luck!!!