Hello Bill.....
A couple of comments:
1) As you mentioned, we will never know as the horse dropped the jockey.
2) The last paceline was the horse's best line---highest speed rating- unadjusted.
3)Most importantly, it would be nice to see the %percent median of this matchup. I am curious if this horse's percent median is deficient compare to the top contenders in this matchup....(deficient by more than 1.5pts)
It appears that this one had a soft early pace from the last paceline (raw fractions) In today's matchup, we have a sprinter coming from faster pace fractions. (I am presuming)
Even if the jockey did not fall, I am willing to surmise that this horse would have falter late due to a faster early pace expenditure.
