Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 04-16-2013, 05:26 PM

Here are the Release Notes in PDF format for the previous version.

Beta 2.5: http://www.SartinMethodology.com/pub...ease_Notes.pdf

New Features in This Version

1. Composite Speed Rating (CSR) added to BL/BL screen. The CSR was formerly only displayed on the NewPace screen, though technically not a part of NewPace. It is a weighting of the Adjusted Speed Ratings from the last 4 usable lines, regardless of distance, surface, race conditions or finish. It is not dependent on a single line, but rather a weighting of the last 4 usable lines.

The weighting is as follows: 100% of the last line SR + 62% of the average of the last 2 lines SR + 38% of the average of the last 3 lines SR + 24% of the average of the last 4 lines SR. Thus the last line SR has a major weighting in the CSR, with the weighting declining for older lines. Thus, if the horse ran well in the last line and faded in the stretch for whatever reason (wrong surface for the horse, wrong distance, inappropriate pace, trouble), since CSR uses ONLY final time Adjusted SR, that last line poor finish will hurt the horse's CSR. For any number of reasons, such a last line may be forgiven and the horse may indeed be a contender today, though the CSR may rank poorly. Then again, if the horse has run fairly in its recent history, the CSR will rank it fairly among others, for better or for worse.

From statistical work done by Dick Mathie (rmath) the Winner of a selected subset of races has a Top 4 CSR figure approximately 85% of the time (closer to 80% allowing for the occasional tied ranks), with the Winner ranking Top 2 approximately 60% of the time. Further, when combined with the VDC rank (which includes ties) the combined VDC - CSR rank pairs of 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 account for approximately 60% of winners (again, from a specific subset of race types and field sizes).

The result is interesting enough to warrant inclusion in a ranking set for further analysis, in my view. The CSR rank is also included in the updated Excel Export Model template (see Point #2 on Excel Export)

Since Dick Mathie has done such a large amount of work on proving some of the initial statistical validity of this number, I will encourage him to discuss it further and explain what limits he used (e.g. race types, field sizes) in his studies. Also, to correct any mistakes I may have cited in the statistics above. The NewPace screen still shows the actual CSR number (to 2 decimal places) and now ranks it as well. The CSR rank alone (including colour coding) is now shown on the Entries Summary screen, on the BL/BL Analyis screen and in the Excel Export.

2. Excel Export File. A new Export Template file (\rdss2\Models\Templates\MasterTemplate2.xlsx) is provided for a new export file format. The new export format is compatible with the original one - the extra columns exported are simply added to the end of the existing defined columns. The new Template file adds the captions for the new columns exported (including CSR) and also adds some new statistical calculations in the Summary section (now found after Row 302). New stats include % Rank1, %Rank2, %Rank3, %Rank4, %Rank 1or2, %Rank 5+. Use this new Template file to export from Analysis screens for Model making purposes, or for any other factor research you may want to conduct.

The Excel Export file is now sorted the same way the Analysis screen is sorted where you exported it from. A reminder: to export Analysis data to an Excel file, click the Export icon at the right side of every Analysis screen. Since Analysis data can be separated into Primary, Secondary and Non- Contender groups, these same groups are now maintained in the export file. The Excel files exported are still located on the folder named \rdss2\Models\.

Changes

1. Registration / 30 Day Evaluation / 2010 Demo Database. I made a number of internal changes to the Registration system. This new RDSS2 version should install and load up normally over existing installs - your Expiry Date, Active Status and Modules (NewPace, if licensed) should all appear as they were before. When your RDSS Subscription is within 30 days of renewal, you'll find a friendly new message on the Desktop screen reminding you of how many days you have left and a button to reach the Subscription renewal webpage. I will still send you a reminder email about renewing your Subscription. As usual, Unlimited data users do not pay an annual Subscription fee if they maintain Unlimited data for half of the previous or upcoming years.

If you are evaluating RDSS, the RDSS Desktop message will remind you of how many days remain in the 30 day evaluation period. There is also a link to download a Demo Database for use during the evaluation period. (New 2011 and 2012 Demo Databases with ~5000 races in each should be available sometime in January 2013 - that's ~15,000 races over the past 3 years for your consideration).

UNLIKE PREVIOUSLY, when you could anonymously evaluate RDSS using a Demo Database (forever) - now when evaluating RDSS, you must Register the software in order to use the Demo Database (or any database of races). Evaluators using only the Demo Database need not open a TrackMaster account, although TrackMaster continues to offer a 'money back satisfaction guarantee' for the first 30 days - no questions asked (think about it - if you are serious about your RDSS Evaluation, why not order up Unlimited Data and ask for all the help you can get!? If RDSS did not impress you, or the Customer Support or website members not offer to help you, or you were not intrigued with the possibilities given sufficient time to become proficient - just ask TrackMaster for your money back! Once ...)

Bug Fixes

1. The Toteboard data stream has been reinstated. BRIS Supertote (where RDSS gets its feed) changed a small element of its tote data structure which knocked the stream offline for RDSS. No other changes have been made to the tote system (though big plans are afoot for 2013!).

2. When loading Scratches and Changes for Canadian tracks, the correct webpage is now accessed (though we'll have to wait until next Spring to see them :-)

.

04-16-2013, 05:26 PM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	RDSS2 Beta2.5-11 Release Notes - Dec 22, 2012 Here are the Release Notes in PDF format for the previous version. Beta 2.5: http://www.SartinMethodology.com/pub...ease_Notes.pdf New Features in This Version 1. Composite Speed Rating (CSR) added to BL/BL screen. The CSR was formerly only displayed on the NewPace screen, though technically not a part of NewPace. It is a weighting of the Adjusted Speed Ratings from the last 4 usable lines, regardless of distance, surface, race conditions or finish. It is not dependent on a single line, but rather a weighting of the last 4 usable lines. The weighting is as follows: 100% of the last line SR + 62% of the average of the last 2 lines SR + 38% of the average of the last 3 lines SR + 24% of the average of the last 4 lines SR. Thus the last line SR has a major weighting in the CSR, with the weighting declining for older lines. Thus, if the horse ran well in the last line and faded in the stretch for whatever reason (wrong surface for the horse, wrong distance, inappropriate pace, trouble), since CSR uses ONLY final time Adjusted SR, that last line poor finish will hurt the horse's CSR. For any number of reasons, such a last line may be forgiven and the horse may indeed be a contender today, though the CSR may rank poorly. Then again, if the horse has run fairly in its recent history, the CSR will rank it fairly among others, for better or for worse. From statistical work done by Dick Mathie (rmath) the Winner of a selected subset of races has a Top 4 CSR figure approximately 85% of the time (closer to 80% allowing for the occasional tied ranks), with the Winner ranking Top 2 approximately 60% of the time. Further, when combined with the VDC rank (which includes ties) the combined VDC - CSR rank pairs of 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1 account for approximately 60% of winners (again, from a specific subset of race types and field sizes). The result is interesting enough to warrant inclusion in a ranking set for further analysis, in my view. The CSR rank is also included in the updated Excel Export Model template (see Point #2 on Excel Export) Since Dick Mathie has done such a large amount of work on proving some of the initial statistical validity of this number, I will encourage him to discuss it further and explain what limits he used (e.g. race types, field sizes) in his studies. Also, to correct any mistakes I may have cited in the statistics above. The NewPace screen still shows the actual CSR number (to 2 decimal places) and now ranks it as well. The CSR rank alone (including colour coding) is now shown on the Entries Summary screen, on the BL/BL Analyis screen and in the Excel Export. 2. Excel Export File. A new Export Template file (\rdss2\Models\Templates\MasterTemplate2.xlsx) is provided for a new export file format. The new export format is compatible with the original one - the extra columns exported are simply added to the end of the existing defined columns. The new Template file adds the captions for the new columns exported (including CSR) and also adds some new statistical calculations in the Summary section (now found after Row 302). New stats include % Rank1, %Rank2, %Rank3, %Rank4, %Rank 1or2, %Rank 5+. Use this new Template file to export from Analysis screens for Model making purposes, or for any other factor research you may want to conduct. The Excel Export file is now sorted the same way the Analysis screen is sorted where you exported it from. A reminder: to export Analysis data to an Excel file, click the Export icon at the right side of every Analysis screen. Since Analysis data can be separated into Primary, Secondary and Non- Contender groups, these same groups are now maintained in the export file. The Excel files exported are still located on the folder named \rdss2\Models\. Changes 1. Registration / 30 Day Evaluation / 2010 Demo Database. I made a number of internal changes to the Registration system. This new RDSS2 version should install and load up normally over existing installs - your Expiry Date, Active Status and Modules (NewPace, if licensed) should all appear as they were before. When your RDSS Subscription is within 30 days of renewal, you'll find a friendly new message on the Desktop screen reminding you of how many days you have left and a button to reach the Subscription renewal webpage. I will still send you a reminder email about renewing your Subscription. As usual, Unlimited data users do not pay an annual Subscription fee if they maintain Unlimited data for half of the previous or upcoming years. If you are evaluating RDSS, the RDSS Desktop message will remind you of how many days remain in the 30 day evaluation period. There is also a link to download a Demo Database for use during the evaluation period. (New 2011 and 2012 Demo Databases with ~5000 races in each should be available sometime in January 2013 - that's ~15,000 races over the past 3 years for your consideration). UNLIKE PREVIOUSLY, when you could anonymously evaluate RDSS using a Demo Database (forever) - now when evaluating RDSS, you must Register the software in order to use the Demo Database (or any database of races). Evaluators using only the Demo Database need not open a TrackMaster account, although TrackMaster continues to offer a 'money back satisfaction guarantee' for the first 30 days - no questions asked (think about it - if you are serious about your RDSS Evaluation, why not order up Unlimited Data and ask for all the help you can get!? If RDSS did not impress you, or the Customer Support or website members not offer to help you, or you were not intrigued with the possibilities given sufficient time to become proficient - just ask TrackMaster for your money back! Once ...) Bug Fixes 1. The Toteboard data stream has been reinstated. BRIS Supertote (where RDSS gets its feed) changed a small element of its tote data structure which knocked the stream offline for RDSS. No other changes have been made to the tote system (though big plans are afoot for 2013!). 2. When loading Scratches and Changes for Canadian tracks, the correct webpage is now accessed (though we'll have to wait until next Spring to see them :-) . __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 04-16-2013 at 05:29 PM.