[DaveEdwards]

I've just read my post back and realised how it came across. What I actually meant was the horse that had relegated the others to an ote role being the only one of the early group with a good chance of winning the race. I just typed it as I'd say it, sorry for that.

So going back to my initial query I'm concerned then whether the prevailing conditions have an impact on the early runners. Even when matched on paper it's highly unlikely that they would finish in the three way dead heat and so clearly one will figure to be superior of the group on the day.

This horse then has the opportunity to set up a win as a lone early or caves in as the race progresses.

So I'm thinking that the prevalent track conditions would indeed have an impact on it's ability to hold on. As Tom Brohamer states on the Brohamer Lecture Tapes, that a lone early can still dominate and win a race even if the track is favouring sustained runners.

A race made up of more than one early though would potentially be a different situation for the dominant of those earlies. The fact that it may face more early pressure due to the race make up would then impact on it's ability to hold on to win on a sustained favouring track as opposed to an early horse that could set a completely uncontested early lead.

Clearly then we are looking at the amount of early pressure the dominant horse is able to withstand and also the %E figure. I guess it's then a balancing act between the two and perhaps using historic data if available to look at the impact on a horse that has been challenged for the lead previously when the track did favour sustained runners.

Maybe I'm answering my own query here, I'm not sure.

In answer to the questions at the end of your last post:
Yes, the %E would be based on the current winners %E.
Yes to the second part. I would be looking at the %E of the lines selected for the runners to see how that fitted the current track requirements.