Quote:
Originally Posted by Psychotic Parakeet
I really believe the run-up does affect early % for sure. Look at my sample database (minimum 50 race sample for each distance) of comparing the winning horse's performance at six furlongs at these different racetracks:
Keeneland (synthetic) Run-Up = 34 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
57.38 56.68 54.41 57.01 56.16 55.71 51.17%
Golden Gate (synthetic) Run-Up = 50 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
57.28 56.74 53.39 57.00 55.80 55.19 51.65
Hollywood Park (synthetic) Run-Up = 60 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
57.33 56.74 53.18 57.03 55.75 55.11 51.75
Santa Anita (dirt) Run-Up = 85 feet
1FR__2FR__3FR__EP__AP___SP___E%
60.21 57.98 53.19 59.06 57.13 56.13 52.62
It seems to me the longer the run-up, the higher the E% goes. I wish I had more tracks to do some analyzing (thanks for giving me a new project  ), but this topic definitely does raise an intriguing point. |
Hello Sir
I need more information on these figures ...
are these sprint races ? Routes. Turf, Turf sprints down hills?
do these figures include $8000 3 year old filly maiden claimers
from GG and $500000 MS specials from Keeneland
What about the track speed ?
Each of your 4 tracks has different 3 year best times at each distance
There is a reason for different track speeds is
Class of horse- Class of track
Your also mixing poly and dirt tracks. That means its very common for
turf horses to run on the poly and vise versa
Here is another track Parx The 3 year best time for 6 furlongs
is 107.2 The average %E of my last 50 6 furlong non maiden
races is 51.95 The run up at Parx is 40 feet
The 3 year best time at GG for 6 furlongs is 108.3
Don't you think the %Early is a product of track surface track class
and track speed ?
Bill