View Single Post
Old 05-06-2013, 07:52 PM   #7
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
race ?

Hi
I have a few Issues, First of which is the race itself.

Second are your rules. I don't agree with them.
But lets look at the race
Name:  at conditions.PNG
Views: 1181
Size:  53.0 KB


Right away I see a $100.000 stakes race for young horses.
This looks like the makings of a longshot winner, That winner probably does not fit the guidelines laid out by FTL in this teaching area,
When I see these type races I select my lines, then root for the horses that fit FTL's guidelines. But since nobody has run at this level and some horses only have 2 lines ( 3 is my minimum ) This is a watch and root but not bet race.
When one of the horses wins with a line I smile, When a horse wins and I don't have a line again
I smile because I was smart enough to have passed the race.

As for your rules .. After reading the Pace line manual and the teaching examples here you should rethink your rules
In the pace line manual it says. Look for a line that represents what you expect the horse to do today
Also.... Has done well under the same conditions in its past

Here is how I would have picked lines for this race.
I don't know much about Belmont. I guess it was a fast track and all 6 ran
Who is the winner based on these lines.. ? but lets see,

Horse 1 NL off 147 days only has a mc win and this is not a NW2L race.


Horse 2 This horse shows a move in the last line but its not enough for me to
earn a (+) let alone a + No line

Horse 3. Line 1 its a + line and a recent. The horse has won both its races

Horse 4 Line 1. Just like horse 3, Its a + line .

Horse 5 Line 1 All its races are + lines no reason not to use line 1

Horse 6 No line. I am not going to use a two turn AQU inner mile race
in a Belmont sprint. This horse has no + sprints showing

So I have lines for three horse
The ML for my three horses are
#3 = 1/1
#4 = 1.8/1
#5 = 5/1
So here I only have a bet on #5
As I said I would root for the 3, 4, or 5
but I would pass
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote