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Bill,
Early 3yos are tough to project. That is why the Derby is such a difficult race to handicap. Projecting out a quarter mile at 6.4 sec per ½ furlong is not realistic in my view, nor my understanding of what Jim was saying. I would not go beyond a furlong tops with these youngsters. There is too much deceleration when these young horses go 1 ¼ miles for the first time
I only use 9f lines when I handicap the Derby and in that case I got hooked up with one of Pletcher’s horses out of a New York Prep and Lucas’ Will Take Charge. What did I learn in the Derby? Mostly that a number of horses went backwards off their last race. But I did hit the exacta a few times in the Preakness and then Palace Malice got me in the Belmont. I didn’t know Pletcher had put blinkers on in the Derby and that they were coming off for the Belmont until I was watching the telecast. My bad! I only use 3 horses in exactas so I had a profitable Triple Crown. The point is that I am consistent in my handicapping and apply the lessons I have learned over the years.
Handicapping is an individual thing. Making money at it is the only result that counts.
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