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Mark:
The Hat's marathon method works because you don't project past the mile call. My point was that Orb with one of the top mile times was a top contender. Hat's view was that most of the energy had been expended in the first 8 furlongs and only those on or near the lead could win. No projection needed.
there are some interesting stats on winning horses in marathon races in the Match Up thread that directly relate to what The Hat said. It worked for all three triple crown races this year and several in the past.
Regards,
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