Quote:
Originally Posted by Latekick
Bill, this is a real horse running today and i want to see what you have to say about this paceline selection.
Okay this is a 6f race on a POLY track. His last race he earned an 83 SR while going 6f over a poly track. 2 back he earned an 84 while going 6f on turf, and 3 back was his best of the last 3 with a 92 bt it was 6f on a DIRT surface. I chose the last line even though its not the best SR ( by the way they re all plus races)
This is the problem im running into a bit. I chose the last line even though its not his best, and this may rank the horse lower than his 3 line would, so this horse may be a winner off of his 3 line which is the best of the last 3, but since i chose his last race on Poly, the SR is lower thus it may be lower ranked in my rankings. Thats what my problem has started to become. Horses that WOULD be ranaked highly if i use the best of last 3, but decide not too because of a reason as i just stated. His 92 going 6f on a DIRT surface is 9 points higher than the line i chose last race on a POLY. Whats your thoughts
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This is a tough call And I hope I get some help because my opinion might not be the best
Here is the horse .. the issues are of course the surface but we also have a
horse that ran a zero race in the last race but the POR was fast
We also have a horse who has been in the barn much more often than normal
and as a 3 year old this looks like a hurt horse after
line 3. Line 3 is a plus race against 3 year olds in a 75,000 stakes race.
But then it went on a break I would throw out line 2 Its a down the hill turf race at Santa Anita and these races are so unlike regular sprints because of the early POR adjustments that need to be factored in. I just disregard any down the hill paceline.
Line 1 will put this horse 4th on blbl for me
So a 4/1 ML and the question of is this horse's form,
I am not sure I am stumped Would bite the bullet and just watch
If there was no break after the stakes race and it was lesss than 90 days ago
I would use line 3 and excuse the last line as a higher purse race and a tired horse
Hope you get a better answer. Tough call for me
