Heh, heh!!! Here I go again...not! LOL
I agree with Bill's assessment of Disarm as far as possibly being hurt. However,...
Look at the 4 April race 115 days ago for both horses. Same race with Disarm beating Whole. Look at their positions versus POR.
Whole was right where he should have been at the 2C. And so was Disarm. But, Disarm was facing a slightly faster POR 44 and 1 than he seems to be able to handle at a 44 and 3 or slower.
Now notice that Whole seems to be declining in form even though he is being run regularly and has recency.
Whereas Disarm may or may not be out of form. (Form and condition are not the same thing. It hay be out of condition - possibly hurt, but, I would argue against it being out of form.)
And this is where passing the race comes into play. You can see from Bill's assessment that he brings his entire body of knowledge and experience into play and is not sure - so he passes.
As for me, I would like to see more information. Unfortunately, I do not download Del Mar to see what else was in the race and cannot say one way or another although I do have questions, which would lean me towards passing the race also, but, that depends upon the other horses in the race.
The thing about these two horses is that the public will perceive them as "not a good horse to put money on". While I might be inclined to believe that about Whole, Disarm shows the kind of past performance that will pay a decent mutual. There are all of these 1's then 2's in the past then 5's and 6's in positions for the last two races. Depending upon what it is facing today, if it is a contender, it will go off at a higher price. It is a horse that can beat the favorite.
Whereas, with Whole, the public will shy away from this horse due to its Stretch and Final positions in its last two races and most likely rightly so becuse the 2C positions as compared to the POR it faced seem to be going out of form. Will its be a factor in today's race? If there are no other early horses, it will most likely have the lead and could possibly wire the field once again paying a high price. If there are other early horses or early pressing horses, it will run to the second call and then fade. It has to be considered because it will effect the POR. Unless there is no other horse that can run decently as a presser or sustained, then Whole would be a contender. But, if there is pressure up front, then no - not a contender, but, needs to be considered in "projecting" the race.
Which brings us back to Disarm. It is one of those horses that would be there just behind that early speed battle and would have enough in the tank as the early horses tire and would pass the horses that would be running slower due to the battle. The public would be on the favorites/early speed. While it does not look that great, it does not look that bad either and might be worth considering as a contender. If for some reason it found itself on the lead as in the past, then so much the better.
I wrote a post about numbers (
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9206). Don't get too focused on the numbers. Focus on the relationships using the numbers to define the relationships.
If you focus on the numbers, you might come to a conclusion that Disarm cannot beat Whole due to the 4 APR race. But, that is not today and what might happen (the future) today. Remember, we are prognosticators - we take educated guesses at the future. No one knows until the race has been run. All we can do is to look at the information and form an opinion. Without a clear opinion, PASS........