Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Jeebs · 07-31-2013, 03:07 PM

Looks like we've got a pretty competitive maiden special turf route going on here with some young seasoned runners.

Pace of Race:

There was only one line for me to choose, and it was the lone turf line for Too Good to B True, which the TE was 160.9 against a 161.2 PoR.

Both of Perfect Package's turf tries were of an early ilk. Both the + turf sprint followed by the N route on the BEL inner are acceptable races. However, I chose the recent line (160.4 TE against a 161.4 PoR) because there's nothing wrong with the line except the speed/fade.

For this race, TGTBT doesn't need to go for the front and can sit right off (E/P), which concedes the early battle to PP (E).

Now the others:

I took the conservative route with Winning Scoop and did not select a line off a 285-day layoff. However, it's been my experience that good efforts on a sloppy course can sometimes indicate turf affinity.

A 47-day layoff for Caxambas Pass off a O route try on the BEL dirt. The most recent turf try is an acceptable + race, a huge run (160.2 TE off a pedestrial 159.8 PoR). Not sure if she gets enough of a pace to run at here, but she looms a threat.

The consistent closer is Doctor Vickie Lynn, whose recent runs are all + turf routes. I could use Line #1 (162.8 TE), but Line #2 (160.4) matches well with today's possible PoR.

Rare Penny only has a O sloppy effort to go by, and is taking a hit at the windows.

On Hidden Energy, I love Neolexia in today's spot, and should get a good run in here late. Win/Place bet in order. The price is more than fair. Doctor Vickie Lynn represents value as well, and am boxing 4-5 in the exacta.

07-31-2013, 03:07 PM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Wednesday Saratoga Race 3 Looks like we've got a pretty competitive maiden special turf route going on here with some young seasoned runners. Pace of Race: There was only one line for me to choose, and it was the lone turf line for Too Good to B True, which the TE was 160.9 against a 161.2 PoR. Both of Perfect Package's turf tries were of an early ilk. Both the + turf sprint followed by the N route on the BEL inner are acceptable races. However, I chose the recent line (160.4 TE against a 161.4 PoR) because there's nothing wrong with the line except the speed/fade. For this race, TGTBT doesn't need to go for the front and can sit right off (E/P), which concedes the early battle to PP (E). Now the others: I took the conservative route with Winning Scoop and did not select a line off a 285-day layoff. However, it's been my experience that good efforts on a sloppy course can sometimes indicate turf affinity. A 47-day layoff for Caxambas Pass off a O route try on the BEL dirt. The most recent turf try is an acceptable + race, a huge run (160.2 TE off a pedestrial 159.8 PoR). Not sure if she gets enough of a pace to run at here, but she looms a threat. The consistent closer is Doctor Vickie Lynn, whose recent runs are all + turf routes. I could use Line #1 (162.8 TE), but Line #2 (160.4) matches well with today's possible PoR. Rare Penny only has a O sloppy effort to go by, and is taking a hit at the windows. On Hidden Energy, I love Neolexia in today's spot, and should get a good run in here late. Win/Place bet in order. The price is more than fair. Doctor Vickie Lynn represents value as well, and am boxing 4-5 in the exacta.