[Because I Can Jim]

I look at the days since last race (dslr), but, just keep it in the back of my mind. This is "corollary" information for me. Think about how the Doc spoke about using corollaries for BLBL.

I am up in the air when it comes to dslr. For The Lead (FLT) tosses horses over 90 days. I don't. I am not saying he is wrong and I am right. It is just how each individual looks at a race for themselves.

But, I do recognize that that is an extended period of time for a layoff. When the workouts are published after clicking on the Workouts tab, I look to see if there are published workouts over an regular interval of time at progressively longer distances to give me a bit of confidence that the horse is "in condition" to run. I don't pay attention to the times. I don't just blindly toss the horse.

One of the tinkgs about dslr that bothers me is that even though workouts are published, you don't know for sure how the horse is truly being worked out. Workouts can be happening at a private track that go unrecorded. Do, when I look at the workouts and I see only one workout on a layoff of over 90 days, I don;t have confidence in the horses condition. Think about it. If you are a runner or swimmer and you take an extended layoff, your physiolology has changed. You don;t have as much wind. If you do workout, you are stiff. It takes a few workouts to start feeling "right" again (in condition). That is why I wold have a tendency to toss a horse with one workout as opposed to keeping a horse with several workouts. It is about condition. But, unless it is published, I can't really be sure.

I will keep the horse and make further judgements based upon the way the horses matchup in the race. I will use other tools to get a better handle on the horse and decide to keep or eliminate.

When I look at the past performances of the horse I will note its best race but will not use it when comparing to the fulcrum horse or matching up against another horse. I will use its running style to better understand its position in the running of the race. I don't use it because I feel the percentages are low that a horse (or you or I) runs its best race after a layoff unless some training has been done.

I will look to see what pacelines look like before and after a layoff and try to "judge" what line might be "comparable" to use for comparions.

So I haven't tossed the horse (unless it is obvious that the horse just cannot compete against the fulcrum or projected pace), but, I keep it in the back of mind mind that this is an questionable/unknown factor. Too many questions in a race and all of this becomes moot as I will pass the race.

As for the purpose of the video, It was intended only to show a process - one that I even deviate from at times. This was just one of the "specifics" that I did not get into. I also glossed over using the purse value for class. My thoughts about it are similiar to dslr. I am by no means anywhere on the same planet as FTL about class. But, I do recognize that a horse moving up in class is running against better horses and dropping down is facing lesser horses. It is also something I just keep in the back of my mind.

All of these things fuel the "intuition" we have. If handicapping was about numbers, everyone would be doing the same exact thing, getting the same exact numbers and there would be no mutuals because we would all be on the same exact horses.

Instead, there is the "art" side of handicapping which resides in the area of intuition. You gather up the information (some of it which is more valuable than others) and you apply it to the race at hand.

Hope that helps.