Hi Jim
I made this reply video. In the video I go into more detail on why I did
not enter a line for the #1 horse.
I apologize for the quality, I made it from here at Del Mar. It was early and I was watching the workouts, I wanted to reply while I had a minute.
There is lots of back ground noise. anyway I hope you get something out of it.
Anyway here is my opinion in a nutshell.
I always look at the conditions of the race
I look at how the horse has run in each pace line.
If the last line is a zero race, I look for a valid excuse
as to why it was not a (+) or a + race.
If its a zero race with no excuse I will strop there.
To me this is not a good win bet.
Horses with 0 races with out excuses are bad risk
and very poor candidates to win.
In the case of the #1 horse I saw 2 zero races, but both were off tracks.
When I looked at horse #1 and saw his + race in line 3.
I would have used line 3 but my analysis goes deeper.
I had suspicions about that last pace line.
In the video you will see the steps I took to come to the conclusion that the
# 1 horse was not a win contender.
They are
- APV,
- Running Style
- Life Time Record
- Previous Races At The Same Condition
Here is a screen shot
and here is the video
pace lines.mp4
