As for the #3 using his last line doesn't put him in a very good light. Having said that it looks like he runs a good race then a bad, then a good, then a bad so this race would have been on his uptick.
He was running G1 but then started dropping in grade. His is working back up in the ranks now.
His running style looks more like a P and not a S.
To tell you the truth Bill beside his cyclical nature nothing jumps out at me.
As far as the #12 horse I bet him because of his returning race after being off for 270 days. He came down the stretch and made the rest of the field look like they were standing still. I put him in the virtual stable and made a note to bet on him in his next race.
As for what factors that could apply to the winner again I'm stumped.
I'm very interested in hearing your take on things (which will help me better my game).