Quote:
Originally Posted by DontSayDont
Most (+) lines, at least for me, are by horses that lead early and then folded in the stretch. Should we then look for a race where it had led and held that to the finish or at least ran 2nd or 3rd and use that as a line to compare his "overall" ability. If I don't I am left with betting horses that will only be in the top of 1st and 2nd Call but lacking in Late Pace and Final Time. If they make the top 5 list, they are mostly 4th or 5th. My 5th rated horses are only winning 5% of the time and paying on average $9.85. The 4th rated horses are winning a bit better at 12% with an average payoff of $8.26. Still that make only 17% of the winners, ave. pay $9.00
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And for me as well.
I''l start with this quote by Tom Brohamer from his book "Modern Pace Handicapping".
"The trickiest piece of the pace scenario is the analysis of Early Pace. MOST RACES ARE WON ON OR NEAR THE LEAD". He goes on to say,
"A horse designated as "EARLY" WILL FIGURE IN EVERY PACE SCENARIO".
So the answer is "no", you don't have to go back for a line where your (+) horse ran 1st or a close 2nd or 3rd. Just use the line where the horse had the lead and faded down the stretch. What you are attempting to establish is, will the horse be able to lead in today's field? If it can't, then it probably will not win. If it can, then it is a solid contender.
When an early horse doesn't run its' best race, it goes out for the lead and fades down the stretch. When a closer doesn't run its' best race, it just runs around the track at the rear of the field. It always amazes me that people will excuse the former, but not the latter.
I haven't played "FL" in a long time, but I'm sure horses win there going wire to wire that faded in the stretch in their last race.
I wouldn't confuse your 4th or 5th choices that are NOT early types with those that are.
Here is another thread you might want to read.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8832
And here is a good writeup by Ted on getting an early that fades in the stretch (a "lone early") that went off at 17/1 in this years Queen's Plate and won.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9233