Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 08-29-2013, 11:56 AM

Equibase publishes the run-up distance in each of their Past Performances. For a while 10 years or so ago the Racing Form had this information in it. A mile track with two shoots is a fairly standard configuration. A few tracks are 1 1/8 miles and Belmont is the only one I know of in North America that is 1 ½ miles. Arlington, Gulfstream, Churchill Downs have 1-turn miles. In fact, Belmont runs one turn routes up to 1 1/8 miles. So you have to be careful using these lines against standard two turn miles. There are also differences in the Turf courses with some tracks having more than one course and different starting positions to say nothing of the position of the inner rails. At the minor tracks you get 3 turn routes. A true Bull Ring is a half mile track but a number have been expanded over the years to 6f. MNR for instance, is almost teardrop shaped and I believe it is 7f. Note that MNR races do not transfer well to other tracks and this is probably the reason, that and cheap horses. In years gone by, Pars or Par Charts were generated from Claiming $10,000 claimers and then each 20% class jump or decline was considered 1/5 of a second faster or slower final time wise. With the popularization of conditioned claimers and the degradation of the breed these are no longer valid. Many smaller tracks run a standard claimer either $4,000 or $5,000 claimers with conditions, NW 1L NW2L, NW3L and NW4L as well as NW6months, NW1Year, NW26months and so forth. The difference in these is often their pace characteristics. You should be able to find a book or paper on this if you google it.Doc Sartin thought Par charts were BS and “The Hat” thought most adjustments were bogus. He did grant track to track differences but he learned what they were from handicapping races. There is just no substitute for doing the work of handicapping. If you focus on one track primarily you need to know what the differences in 1st fraction times are of all the feeder tracks. In addition, there is often a significant difference in the 1st fraction times between sprint distances at the same track. 5f and 5.5f 1st fraction times will almost always be faster than 6f and there is a natural bias as you extend out to 6.5f and 7f because the 1st and part of the race is run down the straight backstretch. There is no incentive for track managements to make things uniform. It costs them money to update things and it makes them easier to handicap so their price levels drop. It is more important to determine what the individual horses can run in a race than any set of Par charts. As “The Hat” always contended, a race is a unique energy field consisting of a set of horses that never ran together before and will never run together again.

08-29-2013, 11:56 AM	#4
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Equibase publishes the run-up distance in each of their Past Performances. For a while 10 years or so ago the Racing Form had this information in it. A mile track with two shoots is a fairly standard configuration. A few tracks are 1 1/8 miles and Belmont is the only one I know of in North America that is 1 ½ miles. Arlington, Gulfstream, Churchill Downs have 1-turn miles. In fact, Belmont runs one turn routes up to 1 1/8 miles. So you have to be careful using these lines against standard two turn miles. There are also differences in the Turf courses with some tracks having more than one course and different starting positions to say nothing of the position of the inner rails. At the minor tracks you get 3 turn routes. A true Bull Ring is a half mile track but a number have been expanded over the years to 6f. MNR for instance, is almost teardrop shaped and I believe it is 7f. Note that MNR races do not transfer well to other tracks and this is probably the reason, that and cheap horses. In years gone by, Pars or Par Charts were generated from Claiming $10,000 claimers and then each 20% class jump or decline was considered 1/5 of a second faster or slower final time wise. With the popularization of conditioned claimers and the degradation of the breed these are no longer valid. Many smaller tracks run a standard claimer either $4,000 or $5,000 claimers with conditions, NW 1L NW2L, NW3L and NW4L as well as NW6months, NW1Year, NW26months and so forth. The difference in these is often their pace characteristics. You should be able to find a book or paper on this if you google it.Doc Sartin thought Par charts were BS and “The Hat” thought most adjustments were bogus. He did grant track to track differences but he learned what they were from handicapping races. There is just no substitute for doing the work of handicapping. If you focus on one track primarily you need to know what the differences in 1st fraction times are of all the feeder tracks. In addition, there is often a significant difference in the 1st fraction times between sprint distances at the same track. 5f and 5.5f 1st fraction times will almost always be faster than 6f and there is a natural bias as you extend out to 6.5f and 7f because the 1st and part of the race is run down the straight backstretch. There is no incentive for track managements to make things uniform. It costs them money to update things and it makes them easier to handicap so their price levels drop. It is more important to determine what the individual horses can run in a race than any set of Par charts. As “The Hat” always contended, a race is a unique energy field consisting of a set of horses that never ran together before and will never run together again.