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Old 09-17-2013, 01:22 PM   #49
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
Hi FTL. I used line 4 but I can see your point for l1. It stands to reason the going 5/12 today it would not decelerate as much as it did at 6f. Also my model for 5.5 has the top ep horses winning
I have a question for you.

In another post you said you use the "best of last 3 distance/surface", so I'm curious how you landed on line 4 for this horse.

I've drawn a black line under the third race back. The last three races are all at either the same or similar distance and all are on the same surface. In addition, all of the last three races are at the same class level and the same condition. I have also noted, in red, the best adjusted speed rating of the last three races.

Isn't line 2 the line you should have used on the basis of "best of last 3 distance/surface"?
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