Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Because I Can Jim · 09-23-2013, 02:19 PM

I know it took you a considerable amount of time to respond to my question(s). Simply put...Thank you.

I was easily able to make heads and tails of what you wrote. It is also something that lends itself to further thoughts and development.

For example, in discussing the #2 and #10 horse. I will admit that I look at the past performances, pick pacelines, select contenders and look at the readouts. Never would I have considered the 10 horse to be faster than the 2 horse as you have explained it. I would have seen the 0.0 for both horses in the 1F and considered them to be the same at the 1F just because of the number. And this brings me into the area of your experience. It seems to me that if you don't have the prior knowledge, you can't bring it to the table when you are looking at the next race. In my case, there was only the numbers which leads to an erroneous conclusion. Now, having that one additional bit of insight, it changes the way I would look at a race - an additonal factor to consider. The more I know, the more insights I have, the better decisions I can make. The question becomes "How to gain the most amount of insight (experience) in as little time as possible?" And just as importantly, how to know if it is right/correct? I know, I know... Pace & Cap and individuals such as yourself, Bill and others.

It is interesting to read about your frequency of wagering and how you look for reasons "not to bet" a race. I too, wait for 4-1 or better but, on two (both) horses to win. Therefore, I pass quite a few races also. Yet, my mind keeps wandering back to "What opportunities am I missing in the race?" This appears to be a sympton of as you put it "looking for a reason to bet a race." I am looking to win (be right) in a race as opposed to seeking profit.

As you wrote:
"Let's take 20 races, just because that is a Sartin cycle. "ON AVERAGE", can we expect 6 to 7 of those races to be won by the favorite? YES. How about the 2nd choices, which are usually 5/2 or less, especially in this time of short fields? Would you say they account for another 4 or 5 winners? Then there is the gap between 3/1 and 7/2. Thery're going to account for a few more winners. So what do I have left, 6 races? And I still have to pick the right horse. It's not easy."

It is good to confirm that what I am doing is not too far off base, especially for still having to pick the right horse for the 6 races that are left.

Once again, a heartfelt thanks for taking a considerable amount of time not only for posting a reply to me, but, also posting as frequently as you do. I know others will agree that while it is not readily seen by you, what you do does have an effect on everyone who reads your words.

Thanks again and take care,
Jim

09-23-2013, 02:19 PM	#10
Because I Can Jim Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 203	Insights that we won't get in a manual or follow up I know it took you a considerable amount of time to respond to my question(s). Simply put...Thank you. I was easily able to make heads and tails of what you wrote. It is also something that lends itself to further thoughts and development. For example, in discussing the #2 and #10 horse. I will admit that I look at the past performances, pick pacelines, select contenders and look at the readouts. Never would I have considered the 10 horse to be faster than the 2 horse as you have explained it. I would have seen the 0.0 for both horses in the 1F and considered them to be the same at the 1F just because of the number. And this brings me into the area of your experience. It seems to me that if you don't have the prior knowledge, you can't bring it to the table when you are looking at the next race. In my case, there was only the numbers which leads to an erroneous conclusion. Now, having that one additional bit of insight, it changes the way I would look at a race - an additonal factor to consider. The more I know, the more insights I have, the better decisions I can make. The question becomes "How to gain the most amount of insight (experience) in as little time as possible?" And just as importantly, how to know if it is right/correct? I know, I know... Pace & Cap and individuals such as yourself, Bill and others. It is interesting to read about your frequency of wagering and how you look for reasons "not to bet" a race. I too, wait for 4-1 or better but, on two (both) horses to win. Therefore, I pass quite a few races also. Yet, my mind keeps wandering back to "What opportunities am I missing in the race?" This appears to be a sympton of as you put it "looking for a reason to bet a race." I am looking to win (be right) in a race as opposed to seeking profit. As you wrote: "Let's take 20 races, just because that is a Sartin cycle. "ON AVERAGE", can we expect 6 to 7 of those races to be won by the favorite? YES. How about the 2nd choices, which are usually 5/2 or less, especially in this time of short fields? Would you say they account for another 4 or 5 winners? Then there is the gap between 3/1 and 7/2. Thery're going to account for a few more winners. So what do I have left, 6 races? And I still have to pick the right horse. It's not easy." It is good to confirm that what I am doing is not too far off base, especially for still having to pick the right horse for the 6 races that are left. Once again, a heartfelt thanks for taking a considerable amount of time not only for posting a reply to me, but, also posting as frequently as you do. I know others will agree that while it is not readily seen by you, what you do does have an effect on everyone who reads your words. Thanks again and take care, Jim __________________ I can explain it to you, but, I can't understand it for you.