Hi Bill. Thanks for the effort. You made a good point about horse #10 ability to win 3 in a row. After reading your post, I went to investigate further, and found out that in both or her previous wins, she broke from the #1 post. I guess it will be harder this time on the #10 post.
My initial thoughts were that the #1 horse has two main advantages in this matchup: It is an Early horse braking from the #1 post and it has a better first fraction. I could add also that the #1 horse did not have to work hard for her last victory...and that is also a plus.
Thanks again. Have a nice weekend
Paul