Quote:
Originally Posted by Segwin
What are the parameters Bill? How far can you go back if the horse has a great APV? Conversely how far back if it dismal?
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Hi Terry
It dose little good to make parameters about AVP and Class.
The reason is because one race to the next offers such a wide range of apv - class horse in the match up.
Here is a race from Parx yesterday. In this race Number 2 had the lowest APV It only had a 65, but the highest APV horse number 9 only had a 102.
The 2 was one of the top 3 in class ratings But most important it had a plus race and fit the pace line guidelines, it won easy and paid $3.00.
Now lets look at Race 6 from yesterday Oct 15 2013.
You can see here the APV range is much wider and the horses have much higher APV's But this is the a much lower class race than Evolution Rock's race.
Horse 5 Bridled Energy is the top APV horse with a very high 284
But does that allow me to go back to line 7,
224 days ago ?. No, I would not because this horse does not show a + pace line in the guidelines posted here in the teaching area.
Bridled Energy won and paid its morning line odds of 4.5 = $11.00.
So in two races one winner had
a APV of 65 and 1 had a apv of 284
The apv and class are tools but its hard to make them rules. Its best to follow the pace line manual
and the guidelines from this thread and use your best decision making ability
The statement about letting the APV class rating helps in decisions but there were also no guidelines to exactly how far back to go as far as days since the last race. i believe a horse with a low APV and Class who is off a long layoff
and in a race with high apv - cr ratings is not a good bet.