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Bill,
It is very exciting and reassuring when that happens. However, there are a number of situations that can occur when it doesn't and you still win the race. For example,
1)the horse or horses that you believe will force the early fractions don't break well or today don't want to go early. This will often lead to a Lone F who slows things down when unchallenged or runs off and sets a blistering pace and folds up at the 1/8th pole. How many times in a quasi paceless route race have you set the 2nd call and they run 2 seconds slower? That used to drive me crazy until I understood what had happened.
2) When track conditions via maintenance or weather change from the period of the pacelines used you can get both slower or faster 2nd calls than you might have projected. I handicapped and lost a race at WO today at 8.5f and no horse in the field had run better than a 1:10.8 2nd call in any of his route pacelines on that Poly surface. with the inclement weather they have been having all week, the surface must have partly frozen as they went along in 1:09 and change today.
By the way, you do me a disservice suggesting that my comments about Tom's weight had anything to do with his handicapping. Or that I suggest that overweight people are in someway flawed or scared by life. Our lifestyles contribute to our physical and emotional health. It's something that a great many of us fight with daily. We have to get exercise and attempt to eat healthful food when most
of the foods available to us at reasonable prices are highly processed, filled with sugars and carbohydrates. Genetics and upbringing also play a great role. But then you don't know me or anything about me.
I emailed the address from Ron Tiller's posting on Pace Advantage and am hoping to hear something from Tom soon!! Hell, I only live 4 hours from Las Vegas and can drive up to see him. I lived in Las Vegas for 6 years before I got married.
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