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Every race has its own cast of players. At each condition you have a collection of horses, some from a last race tandem but also other runners. Within that tandem you have horses that are a race or two off of a layoff, some could have already hit their top and are on the downside or still others that may benefit from the matchup today: Early or OTE.
There is only one thing that we can count on: the past performances of the horses in today's race. That's all we have. Yes, we can say that there are different variants and distances but in the final analysis all we have really is the past performances of each of the horses. We need to make an educated guess as to who will take the lead and what kind of first fraction will be run.
Think about it. If the horses have to run fast in the first portion of the race to stay in contention that is energy consumed. If they do not or don't have the speed then they are trading ground lost for energy conserved. It they walk away from the gate then everyone is in play. Regardless of the average second calls or TPR numbers you have to gauge how much energy is consumed by the Early horses, how
fast are they going to go and who wants the lead.
If you do nothing more and attempt to project the first fraction of the race, you will further your understanding why certain horse win races and that will make you money
in the long run.
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