Quote:
A + last race for a runner at or near the Fulcrum or projected pace will indicate a horse that most likely will be heavily bet. If that race is at today's distance and surface and his adjusted final time is best in the field you are probably looking at the post time favorite.
A (0) last race for a runner at or near the Fulcrum or projected pace, distance and surface is probably a mid-odds horse that has a potential to upset, given that the horse has recent layoffs or is shipping in or has been running at different distances and surfaces.
A 0 last race requires that you must find a legitimate excuse for the horse to consider him as a potential wager. Chasing this kind of runners can be hard on the bankroll.
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Win prices in + (0) and 0 race
Here are some facts
In my last 205 mile races for 3 + male at Parx
the winner of the race had a + line in its last line or 2nd line back providing the last line was excusable as per the pace line manual.
Here are some statistics about those races.
in 205 races the winner's had an average mutual of $10.52.
The winner had a + or a (+) pace line as described above 125 times with an average mutual of $9.75
In the remaining 80 race were the winner had
a 0 race the average mutual was $11.82
Now the same criteria but the + or (+) line was within 90 days of today's race
There were 135 races that the winner had a + or a (+) in a race within 90 days the average mutual was $9.90
In the remaining 60 race with out a + or (+)
the average mutual was $11.45
These 60 race include horse who had a + pace line
within 90 day but had not run at a comparable distance or surface. Thinks like sprinters stretching out or turf only pace lines are included
The win prices are not that different considering the risk
Thanks
merry Christmas
Bill
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