12-21-2013, 05:42 PM
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#18
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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bravo
Quote:
Originally Posted by clore1030
No - I only play the NYRA circuit. I handicap every day, keep my records up-to-date and just wait for the overlays. This year at the Belmont Fall meet, my first wager resulted in a 56 dollar winner. That was enough for me and I only made one other bet which gave me a 25 dollar winner. I just handicapped for the rest of the meet - didn't wager at all. I'm long past needing the action and quite content to just take the money and run.
I was a little busier at the Aqueduct main track meet, nine wagers and five winners. I've learned that it pays to listen to the gut. Yes, I may toss out a few winners, but it also steers me away from many more losers.
I model using the categories on the BL screen. I look for situations where at a given distance, I have 40% or more winners coming from at least two factors - say EP and CPR. Then I wait for horses that will pay 4/1 or more.
If a certain distance doesn't come up with stats to suit my requirements, then I just don't wager. I'm not trying to be clever, I'm trying to cash tickets. I still have the fun of handicapping each race day and if I pass a winner or two, no big deal, there's always tomorrow.
All my stats come from fast track races, and nothing below a 20K claimer - again, the intent is to weed out the greatest number of questionable situations. If there are two unknowns in a race (such as no dirt form or horses with long layoffs), then I just pass the race.
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Bravo
This is a big Gold star outline of a winner !
Clore please check your private messages
Bill
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