Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill V. · 02-10-2014, 05:09 AM

Hi Terry

The reason I asked about the last line phase 1 numbers ?
I use them as a form factor. You seemed to be wondering about how
Jamie Ness could get this one to win.

I saw line 1 as the first race back after a 210 day layoff
That is 7 months, Line 1 seemed to be a even effort.
It ran 6 6 6 5 and until the end stayed even with the POR
plus it has the excuse of its first try at Tampa in the current meet.

In Pace Makes The Race one of the positive form factors is an even balance
between the EPR and LPR in a even effort.

When you posted the pp's to #7 Costa De Oro, I did the phase numbers in my head. As I wrote, I only had your PP's to go by. I wanted to see what RDSS
gave as far as phase 1 numbers for line 1.

I see it gave line 1 a 87.9 EPR and a 84.8 LPR and that is a pretty good balance but as I said it is a little bit toward early (+3.1)

So Line 1 shows me ...
After a 7 month layoff and the first try at Tampa to be a even effort.
Now with a drop in class to 8000 Horse 7 put it together.

Using your lines I see horse 7 was within 5 points on TPR of the highest
ranked contenders.

That is what i was looking for.

One of the basics of Phase 1 is to always rate the last line.

Thanks
Bill

02-10-2014, 05:09 AM	#17
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	form Hi Terry The reason I asked about the last line phase 1 numbers ? I use them as a form factor. You seemed to be wondering about how Jamie Ness could get this one to win. I saw line 1 as the first race back after a 210 day layoff That is 7 months, Line 1 seemed to be a even effort. It ran 6 6 6 5 and until the end stayed even with the POR plus it has the excuse of its first try at Tampa in the current meet. In Pace Makes The Race one of the positive form factors is an even balance between the EPR and LPR in a even effort. When you posted the pp's to #7 Costa De Oro, I did the phase numbers in my head. As I wrote, I only had your PP's to go by. I wanted to see what RDSS gave as far as phase 1 numbers for line 1. I see it gave line 1 a 87.9 EPR and a 84.8 LPR and that is a pretty good balance but as I said it is a little bit toward early (+3.1) So Line 1 shows me ... After a 7 month layoff and the first try at Tampa to be a even effort. Now with a drop in class to 8000 Horse 7 put it together. Using your lines I see horse 7 was within 5 points on TPR of the highest ranked contenders. That is what i was looking for. One of the basics of Phase 1 is to always rate the last line. Thanks Bill